Stay informed with CNN’s Wonder Theory science newsletter for exciting updates on cosmic discoveries and scientific breakthroughs. Astronomers have identified an asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, which poses a potential 2% risk of colliding with Earth in 2032. While the chances of impact are low, experts are closely monitoring this space rock to gather crucial information. This investigation may soon involve deploying the most advanced space observatory ever launched.
Limited details are known about 2024 YR4, but estimates suggest it measures between 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) in width, comparable to the size of a large building. Dr. Paul Chodas, from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, highlighted the importance of studying this asteroid, emphasizing its significance compared to the colossal asteroid that caused the extinction of dinosaurs millions of years ago.
Although smaller than past catastrophic asteroids, 2024 YR4 could still pose a significant threat if on a collision course with Earth. To mitigate risks, astronomers aim to refine the asteroid’s trajectory and gather additional data promptly. Utilizing the James Webb Space Telescope, scientists plan to enhance their understanding of 2024 YR4’s characteristics, such as size and orbit.
Initially detected by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile, this celestial object has been tracked by various observatories worldwide. The Webb telescope, equipped with infrared technology, will provide more accurate size measurements, enhancing our ability to assess potential hazards.
Observing 2024 YR4’s movement from a distance of over 30 million miles (48 million kilometers) and increasing, astronomers anticipate its visibility until early April. This ongoing surveillance, carried out by observatories in Hawaii and elsewhere, aims to gather essential data to safeguard Earth from potential threats.
Located in Hawaii, the Pan-STARRS telescope is currently involved in tracking the movements of the asteroid 2024 YR4. Doug Simons, the director of the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy, emphasized the crucial role of Hawaii’s telescopes in planetary defense, highlighting their ability to detect and study asteroids accurately. This allows scientists to assess potential threats and devise appropriate responses in a timely manner. Even when Earth-based telescopes can no longer observe 2024 YR4, the Webb telescope will continue to monitor its position, providing valuable data for analysis.
After initial observations in March, a follow-up campaign is scheduled for May to finalize measurements of the asteroid’s orbit and track changes in its temperature as it moves away from the sun. In the event that 2024 YR4 disappears before confirming its safety, it will be placed on the risk list until its next sighting in June 2028. Despite returning to Earth’s vicinity every four years, the asteroid is not expected to pose a threat in 2028.
Astronomers use the asteroid’s size to estimate potential risks if it were to collide with Earth in the future. The impact of a large asteroid like 2024 YR4 could cause significant damage, with the potential for blast damage extending up to 50 kilometers from the impact site due to its high speed upon entering the atmosphere. While asteroids of this size impact Earth infrequently, they have the potential to cause severe damage to local regions.
The history of asteroid impacts serves as a reminder of the potential consequences. For instance, the 1908 Tunguska event in Russia and the 2013 Chelyabinsk incident highlight the destructive power of asteroids entering Earth’s atmosphere. If 2024 YR4 were on the larger end of its estimated size range, the impact could be even more devastating, similar to the Tunguska event in terms of scale.
Despite the challenges in detecting smaller, dark asteroids like 2024 YR4, scientists continue to identify new near-Earth objects each year. The dark nature and smaller size of these asteroids make them harder to spot with telescopes, underscoring the ongoing efforts to enhance detection capabilities and prepare for potential impacts.
According to the European Space Agency (ESA), there are approximately 0 rocky objects similar in size to the asteroid, but only about 2% – around 12,000 of them – have been discovered so far. Larry Denneau, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy and coprincipal investigator at the ATLAS telescope, mentioned that tiny asteroids frequently collide with Earth, disintegrating in the atmosphere and appearing as fireballs. Fortunately, these small asteroids typically cause minimal damage upon impact. However, larger asteroids have the potential to inflict significantly more damage, although they strike the Earth much less frequently. Denneau emphasized that there are still numerous large asteroids out there that have not yet been identified, underscoring the importance of ongoing sky monitoring efforts to ensure early detection of potential threats. For more news and newsletters from CNN, you can sign up for an account at CNN.com.
