Tropical Storm Arthur originated on May 16, 2020, according to CNN Weather. While the official Atlantic hurricane season typically spans from June 1 to November 30, nature sometimes disregards this timeline. Recent forecasts suggest that the 2025 season may kick off early, with potential storm development in the western Caribbean where conditions are favorable. Over the past decade, seven out of ten years have witnessed a named storm forming before June 1, compared to only three such occurrences between 2005 and 2014. To address this trend, the National Hurricane Center began issuing tropical weather outlooks from May 15 in 2021, two weeks earlier than before.
Some years have even seen multiple early storms, with 2012, 2016, and 2020 each having two named storms before the official season start. Warm waters in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf regions during the spring have fueled this early activity. As the oceans warm due to climate change, hurricanes are strengthened by the increased heat and moisture available. This year, hurricane researchers at Colorado State University predict an above-average 17 named storms, suggesting a busy season ahead. The warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf and southern Caribbean make conditions ripe for storm development.
In the Eastern Pacific, there have been occasional preseason storms in recent years, although less common than in the Atlantic basin. This basin’s hurricane season starts on May 15, and only three named tropical systems have formed before this date in the last 20 years. The relationship between the Atlantic and Pacific basins affects storm formation, with higher activity in one basin often corresponding to lower activity in the other. Factors like El Niño and La Niña also influence storm development patterns.
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