Just before his 80th birthday, Rodrigo Duterte, the man who once promised to cleanse his country through a violent anti-drugs and crime crusade, was caught off guard and taken into custody.
Upon his arrival in Manila from Hong Kong, where he was campaigning for his candidates in the upcoming mid-term election among the Filipino diaspora, the former president was met by Philippine police. It soon emerged that a warrant for his arrest from the International Criminal Court (ICC) was already in the possession of the Philippine government, prompting swift action to apprehend him.
Assisted by a cane and appearing frail, Mr. Duterte was escorted to an air force base within the airport premises. A chartered jet was promptly readied to transport him to the ICC in The Hague.
The downfall of this once powerful and popular figure, often likened to “the Trump of Asia,” left many wondering how it all transpired. Despite protests from his legal team and family, asserting the arrest lacked legal grounds and expressing concerns over Duterte’s health, the authorities pressed forward.
During his tenure, Duterte aligned with the Marcos family, descendants of the deposed dictator Ferdinand Marcos who were striving for a political resurgence. Unable to seek re-election in 2022, Duterte’s daughter Sara, the mayor of Davao, emerged as a strong contender to succeed him. Meanwhile, Ferdinand Marcos’s son Bongbong, a seasoned politician with substantial resources, also eyed the presidency.
A pact was struck between the two families, aiming to secure Bongbong as president and Sara as vice-president, with the expectation that she would assume the presidency in 2028 with the backing of the influential Marcos network. This strategy proved successful as both candidates won by significant margins.
Duterte had counted on this alliance to shield him from repercussions stemming from his controversial presidency. However, his gravest concern surfaced from an ICC probe into the numerous extrajudicial killings linked to his anti-drug campaigns while in power, both as president and mayor of Davao.
Despite the Philippines’ withdrawal from ICC jurisdiction in 2019, the court pursued an investigation into alleged crimes against humanity predating the withdrawal, commencing in 2021. Nonetheless, President Marcos initially rejected cooperation with the ICC.
The dynamics shifted following the rupture of the Duterte-Marcos pact. Tensions had brewed since the beginning of their collaboration, notably when Sara Duterte’s request for control over the defense ministry was denied, assigning her to the education portfolio instead. President Marcos distanced himself from Duterte’s erratic policies, mended relations with the US, confronted China in disputed waters, and curtailed threats against drug offenders.
Ultimately, these ambitious, power-driven clans vying for supremacy in Filipino politics found themselves at odds. The situation deteriorated when Sara Duterte revealed she had hired an assassin to eliminate President Marcos in case of any harm to her.
Last year, tensions peaked, leading to the disintegration of the alliance between the Duterte and Marcos
The political landscape in the Philippines is heating up as the lower house of Congress, led by Marcos loyalists, has initiated a petition for the impeachment of Ms. Duterte. This move, if successful, could have far-reaching consequences, as it would not only prevent her from holding high political office but also put a dent in the long-standing presidential ambitions of the Duterte family, further diminishing their political influence.
The impending trial, set to take place in the Senate later this year, will be a crucial juncture in determining the future trajectory of Filipino politics. President Marcos, known for his strategic maneuvers, seems to have effectively neutralized his main political rival through this impeachment process. However, the risks associated with such a bold move are not to be underestimated, especially considering the enduring popularity of the Dutertes across various regions of the country.
Sara Duterte, a key figure in the Duterte camp, has not shied away from voicing her concerns, accusing the government of capitulating to “foreign powers” and infringing upon Filipino sovereignty. This public statement underscores the deep-seated tensions and power struggles within the political arena of the Philippines.
As the nation braces itself for the mid-term elections scheduled for May, the support garnered by both the Marcos and Duterte factions will be put to the test, providing a barometer of their respective standing among the populace. The outcome of these elections could potentially reshape the political landscape of the country and set the stage for future power dynamics.
President Marcos, in response to the extradition of his predecessor sought by the International Criminal Court (ICC), has emphasized his commitment to upholding international obligations. However, the execution of the ICC warrant raises questions about the jurisdiction of the court in a nation that has withdrawn from its purview, prompting skepticism among the Filipino populace.
The involvement of the ICC in this domestic political saga poses risks not only for the court itself but also for the global diplomatic landscape. With the Trump administration’s adversarial stance towards the ICC and the reluctance of countries to comply with its indictments, the extradition of former President Duterte to The Hague remains a contentious issue. The potential ramifications of this case extend beyond national borders, drawing attention from international actors such as China, who caution against the politicization of ICC proceedings.
The convergence of domestic power struggles with international legal processes underscores the complex interplay between politics and justice on a global scale. What was intended as a pursuit of accountability for international crimes has now become embroiled in a domestic feud between rival political forces, highlighting the intricate web of alliances and conflicts that shape the contemporary geopolitical landscape.
As events continue to unfold in the Philippines, the implications of these developments reverberate both regionally and globally, underscoring the interconnected nature of modern politics and justice systems. The outcome of the impeachment trial and the subsequent actions taken by all parties involved will undoubtedly have far-reaching repercussions, shaping the future trajectory of Filipino governance and its place in the international community.
