“Democrats Make Gains in Elections Amid Republican Concerns”
Judge Susan Crawford, a Democrat-backed candidate for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, celebrates with supporters at her election night headquarters in Madison, Wisconsin, following her victory on Tuesday. This week, a series of election outcomes has left Republicans facing a new reality: not only are they encountering challenges as the party in power, but they are also contending with a significant shift in the political preferences of the nation’s most reliable voters.
Traditionally, Republicans have been perceived as dominant in lower-profile elections held outside of presidential years, while Democratic voter turnout has been less consistent. However, under President Donald Trump, Republicans are apprehensive that their voter base now includes individuals with lower propensities to vote, who may show up for Trump but lack the same motivation to participate when he is not on the ballot.
In a striking trend, Democrats have been outperforming expectations in special elections this year, securing victories in various races. They have gained control of two state Senate seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania, significantly closed the margins in two open US House seats in Florida, and won a notable Wisconsin state Supreme Court race by a substantial 10-point margin. While Democrats interpret these results as a rejection of the Trump administration’s policies, some prominent Republicans are sounding the alarm about energizing their base.
Vice President JD Vance expressed concern about rallying the Republican base for off-cycle elections, emphasizing the need for the GOP establishment to learn from Trump’s successful political strategies. Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA, stressed the importance of recognizing that Republicans appeal to low-propensity voters who do not consistently turn out to vote. Kirk urged a strategic shift to address the challenges posed by special and off-cycle elections.
Republicans are eyeing the upcoming 2026 midterms and are focused on mobilizing Trump loyalists who may not vote regularly, recognizing their significance in achieving electoral success. Meanwhile, they are also aiming to retain control of the Virginia governorship and expand their majorities in Congress.
Historically, the party in power tends to lose seats in the midterm elections that follow a presidential election. With public opinion divided and uncertainty surrounding the political landscape, Republicans are maintaining a proactive stance, with plans to contest key House districts and potentially capitalize on any shifts in the political climate as they prepare for the upcoming elections.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll revealed mixed sentiments toward President Trump, with a notable percentage of Americans expressing concerns about his economic policies. As parties gear up for future electoral battles, the focus remains on engaging voters, shaping policy agendas, and navigating the evolving political landscape.
Low-voter turnout
During the Trump administration, Democrats have highlighted victories in special and off-year elections and closer-than-anticipated losses as proof of their momentum advantage. In Trump’s first term, Democrats secured a GOP-held US House seat in the Pittsburgh area and an Alabama US Senate seat in special elections before reclaiming the House in 2018. They also made significant inroads in reducing GOP margins in special elections for traditionally Republican US House seats in states like Kansas and South Carolina.
Mike DuHaime, a former political director of the Republican National Committee, suggested that Republicans must learn the lesson Democrats did during Obama’s presidency. Despite Obama’s wins in 2008 and 2012, Democrats faced significant losses in downballot races in the 2010 and 2014 midterms. DuHaime emphasized the importance of money, a compelling message, and an engaging candidate in mobilizing Republican voters.
The example of Wisconsin was pointed out, where a conservative state Supreme Court candidate endorsed by Trump lost to a liberal opponent despite receiving a majority of the votes Trump garnered in the November election. DuHaime highlighted the need for a strong message and candidate alongside financial support for successful Republican turnout.
Republican strategist Sean Noble noted that Democrats have a long-standing advantage in voter turnout infrastructure compared to Republicans. He highlighted the lack of effort by Republicans to build and sustain a strong get-out-the-vote system over time.
In 2024, the Trump campaign focused on mobilizing infrequent voters for the president, resulting in success for Trump but posing challenges for other Republican candidates to capitalize on that support. Despite Trump’s victories in key states, endorsed Republican Senate candidates in those states fell short in votes compared to the president, while Democratic candidates maintained or surpassed Vice President Kamala Harris’ support.
Republican pollster Whit Ayres disagreed with the idea that the entire Republican Party would benefit from mobilizing infrequent voters, attributing Trump’s success to these voters rather than a broader party appeal. Ayres cautioned that Republicans needed to avoid unpopular policy positions to prevent a similar outcome as the 2018 midterm elections where Democrats made substantial gains in the House.
In conclusion, the text suggests a need for Republicans to focus on building a robust voter turnout infrastructure, crafting compelling messages, and selecting engaging candidates to effectively mobilize their base and compete with Democrats in elections.
“Perhaps implementing selective tariffs could be a beneficial starting point,” he suggested. Looking back to 2018, Democrats have contended that the challenge for Republicans lies not with occasional voters, but rather with swing voters who supported Trump in hopes of economic improvements and lower prices.
Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, remarked, “Their issue isn’t the absence of low-engagement voters in these special elections; it’s the loss of Republicans due to either inaction or skepticism toward their policies.” In Iowa, Jennifer Konfrst, the Democratic House Minority Leader, attributed the success of flipping a Republican-held state Senate seat to effective candidate recruitment and reengaging with disheartened Democratic voters.
Wisconsin Democrats highlighted high voter turnout and Susan Crawford’s ability to win over Trump supporters in traditionally red areas as evidence of her appeal. Crawford’s victory in counties that had previously supported Trump, including Brown County in Green Bay, reflected her ability to attract both MAGA voters and Republicans.
Elon Musk’s distribution of checks to voters in support of a conservative state Supreme Court candidate in Green Bay drew attention. According to Patrick Guarasci, a senior advisor to Crawford’s campaign, while some Trump supporters remained loyal to the GOP candidate, many Republicans crossed party lines to vote for Crawford.
Following the recent elections, National Democrats are optimistic about their chances of regaining control of the House. DNC chairman Ken Martin cited a significant shift of voters towards the Democratic Party in recent special elections. State party leaders share this optimism, with Florida Democratic Party chair Nikki Fried warning Republicans who narrowly won in November, and Wisconsin chair Ben Wikler declaring that the voters in his state have sent a clear message: “Democrats are back.”
