In Wisconsin, voters made a significant move in favor of Democrats, providing them with a major victory by securing a liberal majority on the state Supreme Court. This outcome defied the extensive efforts of Elon Musk to support a conservative ally of President Donald Trump. Susan Crawford emerged victorious over conservative Brad Schimel, securing a 10-year term and maintaining the 4-3 liberal majority on the Supreme Court in a state deeply divided between a Democratic governor and a Republican-controlled legislature. The race served as an early indicator of voter sentiment in a crucial swing state during Trump’s second term in office.
Meanwhile, Democrats have been making gains in various elections held since the start of Trump’s second presidency. In Florida, Republicans managed to hold onto two House seats in traditionally conservative districts, although their margins of victory were notably reduced compared to the previous election. Additionally, a Democratic candidate pulled off an upset win in a Pennsylvania state Senate seat located in predominantly Republican-leaning areas.
Looking ahead, the focus shifts to the upcoming gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey later in the year. Here are seven key takeaways from the recent elections in Wisconsin and Florida:
1. Wisconsin’s Rejection of Trump: The battle for control of the state Supreme Court was closely watched, reflecting the high stakes in a critical battleground state. While not directly on the ballot, voters’ choices were seen as a referendum on Trump, Musk, and their respective influences. Despite Trump’s endorsement of Schimel and Musk’s significant financial backing, Crawford emerged victorious, signaling a setback for Republicans and a boost for Democrats.
2. Musk’s Financial Impact: Musk’s substantial financial contributions, combined with funding from other wealthy donors, turned the Wisconsin judicial race into the costliest in U.S. history. Despite the massive spending, voters sided against Schimel, the candidate backed by Trump and Musk. Crawford and her supporters successfully framed the election as a test of public opinion on Trump and Musk, highlighting the tech billionaire’s prominent role in the campaign.
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Once again, a judicial election was held in which he was not a candidate. “There are about 200,000 voters who supported Donald Trump last November but historically do not participate in spring elections,” stated Scott Walker, the state’s former Republican governor, on CNN following Crawford’s victory on Tuesday night. With Crawford’s success, liberals will maintain their 4-3 majority on the high court, granting them the final say on crucial issues facing the justices, such as abortion, voting regulations, and the potential redrawing of congressional districts that presently favor Republicans with 6 out of 8 House seats in the state.
Musk’s high-profile venture, which resulted in defeat, in Wisconsin raises doubts about the efficacy of his resources and influence moving forward as he seeks to assist Republicans in their efforts to defy the historical trend of the president’s party losing ground in the midterm elections next year. The Tesla CEO had previously pledged to contribute $100 million to support political organizations aligned with Trump, as confirmed by a reliable source. Moreover, he recently made direct donations to several House GOP members who have expressed support for the impeachment of judges obstructing Trump’s executive actions.
Democrats actively engaged in House races suggest that Musk’s involvement and the controversy surrounding his attempt to reduce federal spending within the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency will be a focal point in upcoming elections. (Advertisements from pro-Crawford groups depicted Musk holding a chainsaw at a conservative activists meeting this year, aiming to link him to cuts in programs benefiting vulnerable populations.)
“He serves as a useful target,” remarked a Democratic strategist involved in House races about Musk. “Trump is a prominent target in many aspects, but ultimately, many people voted for Trump. Nobody voted for Elon Musk, especially considering the prominent role he has assumed.”
Wisconsin incorporates voter ID into state constitution
A referendum backed by the GOP to embed Wisconsin’s voter ID mandate into the state Constitution was overwhelmingly endorsed on Tuesday, despite voters maintaining a liberal majority on the state Supreme Court. Since 2011, Wisconsin voters have been mandated to present a photo ID when requesting an absentee ballot or voting in person. However, this referendum will make it more challenging for any future Democratic majority in the state to revoke these laws and safeguard the requirement against legal challenges.
Advocates of voter ID laws argue that they deter fraud and uphold trust in the integrity of elections. Conversely, opponents argue that these laws create obstacles for certain groups, particularly low-income and disabled voters, potentially disenfranchising them. Democrats and nearly twenty civil rights organizations, including the Wisconsin chapters of the ACLU and the League of Women Voters, urged voters to reject the referendum.
Despite the opposition, voter ID laws continue to be well-received in the state. A poll conducted by Marquette University Law School in February revealed that 73% of Wisconsin voters supported incorporating the voter ID requirement into the state Constitution.
Wisconsin demonstrates its status as a swing state
Schimel’s defeat is a setback for Trump and
Joe Biden won the state in 2020, followed by Evers’ re-election in 2022, and liberals gaining control of the state Supreme Court in 2023. The shift in the state Supreme Court caused significant ripples across the state, leading to the redrawing of political maps that allowed Democrats to secure a few state legislative seats. Despite these changes, there was no overwhelming blue wave in 2024 as Trump narrowly clinched victory over Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin by approximately 30,000 votes. Wisconsin continues to showcase its status as a purple state, rejecting Trump and Musk in recent elections.
The recent elections in Wisconsin highlighted the diverse political views within the state. Despite heavy spending by Musk and Trump endorsing her opponent, Crawford’s win was attributed to the same voters who had supported voter ID laws in the state Constitution. It is evident that for Republicans to succeed in the state in 2026, they will need more than just the backing of Trump and Musk.
In a broader context, the wins by Republicans Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine in Florida provided House Speaker Mike Johnson with more room to advance Trump’s agenda. Trump’s decision to withdraw Elise Stefanik’s nomination for US ambassador to the UN due to concerns about a special election in a Republican stronghold underscored the fragile House majority. The GOP narrowly avoided potential losses in Florida, which could have caused chaos on Capitol Hill and complicated Johnson’s task of uniting a divided caucus.
While the Republicans managed to secure victories in Florida’s special elections and maintain their House majority, the unexpectedly competitive races raised concerns within the party. Despite the wins, the Democrats narrowed the margins significantly in districts that were won by Trump in the previous election. These results serve as a warning for GOP incumbents in battleground seats, indicating a challenging midterm environment if Democrats sustain their opposition to Trump and the Republican agenda.
Trump’s influence in Florida remains strong, as demonstrated by his endorsements in key Republican races. By backing Patronis and Fine for Gaetz and Waltz’s seats, Trump solidified his hold over the GOP in his home state. Despite the tighter races in Florida’s special elections, Trump’s influence remains formidable, setting the tone for future political dynamics within the state.
Members of Congress who are loyal to Trump and owe their success to him are heavily influential. In contrast, DeSantis did not support Trump-backed candidates, did not assist the GOP in maintaining its majority, and criticized Fine as a problematic candidate just as Republican anxiety about the race was peaking. Fine and Patronis are now moving to Washington, where Trump has consolidated his influence in the federal government by gaining support from Republicans who had previously supported him over their own state governor during the Republican presidential primary. Trump’s key staff, including Susie Wiles and James Blair, have ties to DeSantis, and he has appointed individuals like Waltz, Rubio, and Bondi to key positions. Trump’s top donors in Florida are using their connections to influence the new administration. Although Trump and DeSantis publicly maintain a positive relationship, their rivalry persists, with Trump already focusing on the upcoming gubernatorial race in Florida. Trump’s endorsement of Rep. Byron Donalds and Casey DeSantis’s potential candidacy to replace her husband indicate his continued influence in the state. The support from Trump was crucial in Fine’s election victory, as both Republicans and Democrats acknowledged his impact. This article has been updated with more information.
