In today’s political landscape, the only certainty is that the status quo rarely remains unchanged. History shows us that when a single party gains control of the White House, the House, and the Senate – known as the trifecta of governing power – the new status quo typically lasts closer to two years than four. The pressure is on for both the GOP, eager to leverage their majorities under President-elect Donald Trump, and the Democrats, who must navigate a path forward after their recent defeat. The crucial question looming in 2025 will be whether the pressure of losing or the pressure of governing is more impactful.
Looking back at periods of one-party control of the trifecta since President Ronald Reagan’s tenure in 1980, it’s evident that maintaining this level of power is a challenge. Jimmy Carter held the trifecta for four years but saw his party splinter by year three, marking the last time the Democrats had an uninterrupted four-year hold on Congress and the White House. Reagan and George H.W. Bush never achieved the trifecta during their presidencies, although Reagan’s party controlled the Senate for six of his eight years. Bill Clinton and the Democrats held the trifecta for only two years, at the start of his presidency.
When George W. Bush took office, his party’s trifecta was short-lived, lasting less than six months before a Senate switch gave Democrats a slim majority. Bush regained the trifecta after the 2002 midterms but lost it in the Democratic wave of 2006. Democrats briefly regained the trifecta after Barack Obama’s election before losing it to the GOP in the 2010 midterms. Republicans reclaimed the trifecta during the first two years of Trump’s presidency but lost the House in the 2018 midterms. Joe Biden and the Democrats regained the trifecta after the 2020 election but, like their predecessors, lost it in the subsequent midterm.
As the GOP prepares to enter another trifecta with Trump’s inauguration, they are aware that their grasp on power is tenuous. Republicans understand the transient nature of their control and are racing to fulfill their promises before the 2026 midterms. They acknowledge that they are merely “renting” power until the electorate decides otherwise. It’s not a question of “if” the GOP will lose power, but rather “when.” The timeline for this shift seems foreseeable, given the narrow House majority held by Republicans, especially without Trump on the 2026 ballot.
While the timing of this transition appears predictable, the manner in which it unfolds remains uncertain. Will the GOP remain united behind Trump, or are there underlying divisions within the party? The recent contentious vote for House Speaker provides insight into potential fractures within the party. While there is a shared goal of making Trump’s presidency successful, there are differing opinions on how to achieve that objective. The GOP faces challenges in maintaining unity and coherence as they navigate the complexities of governance and
Episode Chip Roy, a conservative from Texas, entered national politics with a focus on restricting the government’s size and reach. The alignment of Roy’s conservative principles with those of Trump and the newer Republicans he has brought into office remains uncertain. The current Republican Party appears divided between advocating for strong government involvement in various aspects of society, such as culture and the economy, and a more libertarian approach to governance that emphasizes limited government intervention in people’s daily lives. This schism within the GOP could pose challenges for Trump in passing his legislative agenda, as he shows little concern for the deficit compared to some of his fellow Republicans. Trump’s strategy of dismissing opposition within his party may prove successful legislatively, barring a significant shift in GOP support for him. However, any dissent among a few fiscal conservative Republicans could hinder Trump’s agenda and expose the party’s internal divisions. Any fractures within the Republican coalition could benefit the Democrats if they can maintain unity during Trump’s term. Despite Democrats’ united front against Trump initially, signs suggest that the opposition may erode as they navigate his second term. Some Democrats may be willing to collaborate with congressional Republicans on Trump’s initiatives, reflecting concerns about the Democratic Party’s image and the rise of individualistic stances among elected officials. The extent of Democratic cooperation with Trump and the party’s internal dynamics remain uncertain, with no clear leader capable of exerting significant influence. The upcoming elections loom large, prompting questions about potential repercussions for Democrats who align with Trump and the subsequent impact on party unity. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries may face challenges in rallying their colleagues against working with Trump. The Democratic base’s response to collaboration with Trump could further divide the party and shape future political dynamics.
Can the current set of elected Democrats in Congress find a voice? It seems they are beginning to understand the need for humility with voters, acknowledging that elections have consequences and recognizing that voters have clearly expressed their fatigue with Democratic leadership. However, how long will this mindset persist among Democrats? Which Democratic leaders, possibly eyeing the 2028 presidential election, will seize the opportunity presented by what they perceive as weak opposition to Trump in Washington to demonstrate strength and emerge as new figures in the resistance against Trump? And could this potentially assist the party in defining its stance, or inadvertently provide Trump with a target that helps him maintain unity within his own party?
One thing is certain: Politics is a dynamic arena, even during times of relative calm. Reflecting on the frequent changes in control of the House, the Senate, and the White House over the past quarter-century, it could be argued that the new “status quo” in Washington and in politics is constant change.
This year, it may be wise to anticipate change and expect internal turmoil within both major parties, potentially leading to fragmentation. The pressing question is not if this will occur, but when and how it will manifest, and which party will be the first to show signs of cracking.
