A storm system forming over north-central Mexico is set to slowly progress through parts of the south-central United States in the coming days, bringing much-needed rain to combat drought conditions while also posing a risk of flash flooding, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
The onset of drenching showers and thunderstorms is anticipated along the Rio Grande Valley stretching from southern New Mexico to the Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Subsequently, the primary storm will gradually move towards the northeast along the western Gulf Coast from Thursday into Friday.
Positioned favorably to access abundant moisture from the Gulf, the storm is expected to unleash heavy downpours and potentially strong thunderstorms in various regions. While some thunderstorms may bring severe weather with strong winds and large hail across southern, western, and central Texas from Wednesday to Thursday, the primary concern lies in the heavy rainfall impact over the long term.
Parts of coastal and central Texas, as well as areas in Louisiana, are likely to receive significant rainfall leading to potential flash flooding in both rural and urban settings. Motorists are advised to exercise caution as dangerous conditions such as low-water crossings in rural areas, ponding on highways, and street flooding in urban areas may arise.
Cities such as Houston, San Antonio, Austin, Corpus Christi, and Victoria in Texas are expected to bear the brunt of the storm with substantial rainfall, while regions including Dallas, Abilene, and Brownsville in Texas, and Lafayette and Shreveport in Louisiana will also experience considerable precipitation.
In a segment spanning the central Texas coast to I-35, rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches are projected, with a potential Local StormMax™ of up to 14 inches. Although this volume of rainfall is comparable to that of a weak tropical storm, it is not associated with a tropical system.
The anticipated rainfall is poised to alleviate drought conditions prevalent in many areas. For instance, Victoria has witnessed rainfall deficits ranging from 40-65% below historical averages last fall into winter. However, since February 1, rainfall has plummeted to less than 25% of historical averages, further dropping to just 6% since March 1.
Persistent dry conditions over several months have exacerbated drought situations, with extreme to exceptional drought conditions prevailing in some areas south and west of Houston. Hence, any precipitation in these regions will be incredibly beneficial.
Following its path through Texas and Louisiana, the storm system is forecasted to advance into the Mississippi Valley over the weekend, potentially tempering severe weather threats initially. Nevertheless, a subsequent severe weather outbreak in the Central and Eastern states may ensue from the storm system by early next week.
Before the storm intensifies over southeastern Texas, a preliminary fast-moving storm will bring showers and thunderstorms across north-central Texas, southern Oklahoma, and Louisiana until Wednesday evening.
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