In the initial stages of his presidency, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has taken steps to deter China’s influence in the region, with plans to increase military presence in the Indo-Pacific and provide more support to Taiwan. However, the recent announcement of global tariffs by Trump may inadvertently contradict his administration’s strategic objectives.
While China is a primary target of these economic measures, the tariffs also affect allies like Japan and South Korea, as well as emerging partners such as Vietnam and India. Analysts warn that this approach could create an economic barrier around the U.S., potentially undermining Washington’s strategic aims regarding China.
The move to alienate numerous U.S. trade partners simultaneously weakens the effectiveness of Trump’s China policy, according to Joe Mazur, a geopolitics analyst at Trivium. It may lead to a scenario where China aligns with other countries impacted by the tariffs, prompting a coordinated or at least incentivized response that counters U.S. goals.
Despite criticism and concerns raised by experts, the White House National Security Council did not offer an immediate response. Trump defended his tariff decision by challenging past trade predictions and announcing significant tariff rates on various countries, including China, the European Union, and Taiwan.
Scott Kennedy from the Center for Strategic and International Studies expressed apprehension over the potential negative consequences of the administration’s trade policy on the U.S. economy and international relationships. There is a fear that prioritizing manufacturing jobs could come at the cost of jeopardizing other critical sectors that drive employment, prosperity, and global influence for the U.S.
While Trump’s administration emphasizes strengthening military capabilities to counter China and has shown support for Taiwan, other actions may inadvertently benefit Beijing. Reductions in foreign aid and efforts to dismantle U.S. media services intended to counter adversary propaganda could diminish U.S. influence. Additionally, unconventional moves like the pursuit of Greenland and claims over the Panama Canal raise further questions about the administration’s strategic direction.
The strategy of imposing global tariffs to counter China has stirred up concerns among allies and cast doubt on the U.S.’s dedication to upholding an international order based on rules. Lizzi Lee, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, cautioned that these tariffs could potentially backfire. She pointed out that the Trump administration’s reduction of soft power efforts, such as cutting foreign aid and dismantling Radio Free Asia, makes this move a risky gamble that may inadvertently benefit China.
However, China’s leaders are not without their own risks in this economic standoff. The tariffs and any resulting economic repercussions could be detrimental to China, which is already grappling with a slowing economy. Christopher Beddor, Deputy China Research Director at Gavekal Dragonomics, highlighted the potential negative impact on China, stating that destabilizing the American economy could have severe consequences for China as well. The primary concern now is that Trump’s broader trade policy agenda might trigger a global economic shock that could prove challenging to handle.
Despite the tough stance taken by Beijing and its swift retaliatory measures following two rounds of additional tariffs under the Trump administration, many analysts believe that China’s responses have been relatively measured, leaving room for potential dialogue. Sun Chenghao, a fellow at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy, emphasized that while China’s actions are reciprocal, they are not intended to be deliberately provocative. Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, predicts that China will likely refrain from a sweeping tariff retaliation but will exert pressure on politically sensitive U.S. exports like agriculture and industrial machinery, as well as increase regulatory actions against U.S. companies. He also anticipates that China will signal to Europe and other traditional U.S. allies that it remains open for business.
In the midst of this trade dispute, Chinese President Xi Jinping is playing a strategic long game. Singleton suggested that Xi’s approach involves avoiding making concessions, absorbing any economic impact, and betting on Trump yielding first. Despite the escalating tensions, both parties are leaving channels of communication open, indicating a willingness to engage in dialogue.
