Prepare for an upcoming busy Atlantic hurricane season, as experts from Colorado State University have forecasted the possibility of up to 17 storms, with nine likely to intensify into hurricanes. In a typical year, there are about 14 tropical storms, seven of which usually become hurricanes, based on data spanning from 1991 to 2020. Last year saw the formation of 18 storms, including the destructive Hurricanes Helene and Milton. The heightened forecast this season is attributed to warmer-than-usual waters in the Atlantic Ocean, essential for hurricane formation, and the anticipated absence of the inhibiting El Niño phenomenon.
Colorado State University’s hurricane predictions, led by the late renowned meteorologist William Gray, have long been respected in the field. This marks their 42nd annual forecast since pioneering seasonal hurricane predictions in 1984. Other prominent forecasts, such as AccuWeather’s recent projection of 13-18 named storms, including 7-10 hurricanes, will also be released this spring. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is scheduled to unveil its forecast later in May.
Factors influencing this season’s forecast include sea-surface temperature patterns in both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Warmer Atlantic waters, while not as extreme as last year, are still above average and conducive to an active season. Additionally, the declining La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, which tends to heighten Atlantic hurricane activity, suggests a neutral condition for the upcoming hurricane season. With no strong El Niño expected, the conditions are primed for an above-normal hurricane season.
As we gear up for the hurricane season, keep an eye out for further updates and stay informed about potential weather risks.
The hurricane season of 2020 saw a 43% increase in major hurricanes, defined by wind speeds of at least 111 mph. The likelihood of landfall is higher along the Gulf Coast at 33% compared to the East Coast at 26%. The Atlantic hurricane season of 2025 officially begins on June 1 and lasts until November 30. In the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, over 400 fatalities were recorded, making it the deadliest season since 2005. Hurricane Helene, with a death toll of at least 241 in the U.S., was the deadliest single storm since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Other deadly storms in 2024 included Hurricanes Beryl and Milton, each causing over 40 fatalities. In total, there were 18 named tropical storms and hurricanes in 2024, surpassing the long-term average of 14, with 11 of them intensifying into hurricanes. According to the CSU forecast, the Atlantic hurricane season of 2025 is predicted to be active.
