WASHINGTON (AP) — Following a reduction in staffing during the Trump administration, nearly half of the National Weather Service forecast offices are experiencing vacancy rates of up to 20%, double that of a decade ago. This comes as severe weather continues to impact the heartland of the United States, as revealed by data acquired by The Associated Press.A comprehensive analysis of staffing levels at all 122 weather field offices has revealed that eight offices are operating with more than a 35% vacancy rate, particularly in states like Arkansas and Kentucky where recent tornadoes and heavy rains have caused devastation. These statistics were compiled with input from over a dozen National Weather Service employees. Experts warn that vacancy rates exceeding 20% signify critical understaffing, with 55 of the 122 sites currently facing this challenge.While these weather offices typically issue daily forecasts, they also play a crucial role in providing real-time warnings during severe weather events, such as the recent tornadoes that claimed seven lives and ongoing catastrophic flooding. This week alone, the weather service has received reports of at least 75 tornadoes and 1,277 instances of severe weather.The shortage of staff has had tangible consequences, with meteorologists in the Louisville office unable to conduct surveys of tornado damage due to the lack of personnel on Thursday. This essential task, aimed at improving future forecasts and warnings, had to be postponed as meteorologists were forced to prioritize immediate safety concerns over gathering crucial data.“This is a crisis situation,” remarked Brad Coleman, a former president of the American Meteorological Society. Expressing deep concern over the potential risks posed by understaffing, Coleman emphasized the possibility of lives being lost as a result.Former National Weather Service chief Louis Uccellini echoed these sentiments, stating that the current numbers indicate a troubling situation. The looming threats of severe weather, flooding, and wildfires in various regions have further exacerbated the challenges faced by understaffed offices.The data on staffing shortages was collated through an informal yet extensive effort by weather service employees in response to the staffing cuts initiated by the Department of Government Efficiency. Individual office staffing levels were meticulously assessed and compared with historical data to highlight the magnitude of the issue. Efforts to address these vacancies were also documented and scrutinized by the employees.The Associated Press, having obtained the list from an external source, took measures to verify the numbers by reaching out to individual weather offices, examining online staff directories, and consulting with other employees not directly involved in the data collection process. While slight variations were noted between the workers’ data and official weather service records, employees attributed these inconsistencies to potential delays in updating online information.Rep. Eric Sorensen, a Democrat from Illinois and the sole meteorologist in Congress, independently corroborated the data obtained and confirmed certain details with weather professionals in Midwestern weather service offices, known as WFOs. The significance of the staffing shortages in these key offices near his constituency underscored the
With a vacancy rate of 37.5%, heroic efforts have been observed by the Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in response to recent tornado outbreaks, as highlighted by Sorensen in a statement to the AP. The worry is that ongoing budget cuts may compromise public safety going forward. Sorensen emphasized the nationwide impact, citing the potential risks of severe storms in various regions, including Speaker Mike Johnson’s district near Shreveport, Louisiana, which has a 13% vacancy rate. Data dating back to 2015 indicates a significant increase in overall vacancy rates, raising concerns about the capacity to provide accurate forecasts and storm warnings.
Despite the critical role meteorologists play in weather prediction, numerous stations across the country are understaffed. Some offices have resorted to limiting weather balloon launches, a practice vital for gathering essential weather data. The shortage extends beyond forecasters, with vacancies in key leadership roles and emergency coordination positions. The situation is particularly dire in locations like Houston, where natural disasters have caused extensive damage, amplifying the challenge for meteorological staff.
Experts warn that the strain on weather service personnel poses a serious threat to public safety. The lack of technicians to maintain essential equipment, such as radar systems, could have potentially disastrous consequences. With severe weather season and extreme events like wildfires and hurricanes approaching, the risk of inadequate response and preparedness looms large. The underlying concern is that overburdened staff may be unable to address all weather-related emergencies, leading to gaps in critical services and potential errors in forecasting.
The analogy drawn to aviation safety underscores the gravity of the situation, highlighting the potential for cascading risks and the compounding effects of staff shortages. As the burden on weather service employees continues to mount, there are growing fears about the ability to effectively manage the increasing demands of weather monitoring and response.
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