Recent layoffs at the National Weather Service and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have raised concerns about the safety of weather forecasts. Over 600 workers, including scientists and researchers specializing in tsunami alerts and hurricane monitoring, were let go by the Trump administration, representing about 5% of the agencies’ workforce.
One affected employee, Kayla Besong, a physical scientist at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, expressed her dismay at being considered essential but ultimately losing her job. She was part of a team responsible for programming systems to assess the risk to U.S. coastlines and issue timely alerts. The mass firing of skilled workers who were dedicated to protecting lives and property may strain NOAA’s workforce and impede progress on crucial public safety programs, according to former agency personnel.
With climate change leading to an increase in severe weather events, accurate forecasting is more vital than ever. However, meteorologists and forecasters have faced backlash and harassment, possibly fueled by political agendas and misinformation. The layoffs were defended by a White House official, who claimed that the process ensured that mission-critical functions were not compromised.
Critics, including former agency officials and Democratic lawmakers, have condemned the cuts, warning of the potential impact on public safety during weather emergencies. The loss of expertise and resources could jeopardize the timely warnings needed to mitigate the effects of natural disasters like hurricanes, tsunamis, and severe storms.
Despite the challenges, NOAA remains committed to its mission of providing essential information to the public. The layoffs have sparked protests and legal challenges, as concerns grow about the long-term implications for weather forecasting and public safety.
During tsunami events, Dr. Besong would contact military installations and local emergency managers with risk information to assist people. She viewed this as a direct application of her skills in atmospheric science to enhance systems that protect and provide warnings against hazards. Dr. Besong highlighted the complexity of tsunami alerts, which depend on specialized computer programs analyzing seismic and tidal data to detect potential threats. She emphasized the importance of skilled programmers in maintaining and improving these niche systems.
Despite resource constraints, Dr. Besong stressed the need for highly qualified individuals, such as those with doctorates or master’s degrees and relevant experience, to work on these systems. Another expert, Dr. Hazelton, a specialist in hurricane modeling, contributed to NOAA’s advanced hurricane forecasting program, HAFS. His expertise in developing accurate physical approximations for forecasting helped improve storm predictions and warning dissemination.
Dr. Hazelton lamented the loss of expertise resulting from the recent dismissals, including that of Kerri Englert, a flight director and meteorologist onboard “hurricane hunter” missions. These missions play a crucial role in collecting data for modeling and enhancing forecast accuracy. The reduction in flight director positions could lead to fewer hurricane hunter flights during storm season, impacting the quality of data available for forecasting and potentially increasing uncertainty and evacuation needs.
The fired workers also contributed to the development of modeling tools crucial for predicting severe weather events. Their absence may delay the rollout of these tools and affect their effectiveness. The impact of these dismissals extends to the broader community, as the loss of expertise jeopardizes the safety and preparedness measures taken during natural disasters.
He was brought aboard the National Weather Service in 2023 as part of a special initiative accommodating individuals who were still pursuing their academic degrees but eager to contribute to the agency. His initial role involved working at the Northeast River Forecast Center of the service and at its weather forecast office situated in Albany, New York, a duty he diligently fulfilled until just last week. During his tenure, he actively participated in the launch of weather balloons and played a significant role within a team dedicated to developing a flood inundation mapping tool.
This innovative tool, which is currently in the stages of ongoing refinement, has been crafted to simulate and predict which specific areas within a community are at risk of flooding during severe rainfall events, encompassing the increasingly frequent extreme weather occurrences resultant from climate change. According to Belkin, early iterations of the mapping tool were disseminated to various local emergency management authorities, with the overarching objective being to broaden the tool’s reach nationwide by the year 2026.
A noteworthy triumph of the modeling system was its accurate prediction that the flooding in Montpelier, Vermont, that transpired in July 2023 would extend as far as the state Capitol building—a prediction that Belkin personally verified. However, following a series of workforce reductions, Belkin, along with several other dedicated individuals involved in the project, found themselves among the group of individuals let go. Expressing his concerns about the detrimental impact of the layoffs, Belkin emphasized the critical role of human validation in ensuring the accuracy of the model outputs, stressing that without sufficient personnel support, the flood inundation mapping project would be at risk of faltering.
Subsequent to the staffing cuts, a decline in the availability of meteorologists to handle public inquiries and issue weather forecasts was noted. One such meteorologist, Francis Tarasiewicz, who was stationed at the National Weather Service in Rhode Island, attested to the team’s unwavering commitment and emphasized the importance of their work in serving the public. Notably, Spinrad, in a press conference, highlighted the widespread reduction in personnel across all NOAA offices, with a significant decrease affecting around 30% of the workforce within the Office of Space Commerce.
Conveying the critical function of the Office of Space Commerce in averting space collisions among the myriad of objects orbiting the Earth, Spinrad underscored the far-reaching consequences of the staff reductions, cautioning that the diminished workforce could potentially lead to delays in the issuance of seasonal outlooks and hurricane forecasts. As a direct result of the staffing changes, certain essential services provided by NOAA and the National Weather Service experienced immediate disruptions.
Following the series of dismissals, the National Weather Service office in Kotzebue, Alaska, announced its temporary suspension of weather balloon releases, citing staffing constraints. Likewise, NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory declared a halt in its social media communications due to reduced staffing levels. These operational adjustments were further compounded by the complete elimination of NOAA’s external affairs team, leaving crucial public safety functions at
