“Threat from Above: Airplanes at Risk from Mysterious Space Debris”
According to Aaron Boley, an associate professor of physics and astronomy at the University of British Columbia and co-director of the Outer Space Institute, space junk poses a danger to airplanes as it originates from various human-launched objects in outer space such as satellites and exploration equipment. Rockets used to launch satellites into orbit often leave behind a significant amount of material, leading to an accumulation of space debris. Boley highlighted the growing challenges associated with the increased use of outer space and the risks it brings.
Estimates suggest that there are around 50,000 pieces of space junk the size of a softball or larger orbiting near Earth, with millions more smaller objects between a centimeter and half a millimeter in size. As these objects naturally decay, they can re-enter Earth’s atmosphere, posing risks to aviation safety. When space debris re-enters the atmosphere, it tends to break apart but not entirely disintegrate, creating fine particulates as it burns up.
The study particularly focused on rocket bodies due to their size, heat resistance, and potential for causing harm if they re-enter Earth’s atmosphere. The research analyzed the risks posed by space debris to different regions of airspace based on air traffic density data from 2023, identifying areas like Vancouver, Seattle, and the Eastern seaboard as having a significant probability of disruption from space debris re-entry each year.
Boley emphasized the need for officials to use this data to assess whether closing airspace is necessary for safety. However, he also acknowledged the potential economic disruptions and safety issues that could arise from such closures, highlighting the delicate balance between mitigating risks and maintaining operational efficiency in aviation.
The aviation industry has increasingly considered the threat of space debris following incidents like the 2003 Columbia space shuttle disaster, where aircraft encountered debris during re-entry, raising significant safety concerns. Boley underscored the importance of addressing the risks posed by space debris to ensure aviation safety in the face of potential strikes.
In 2022, Spain and France made the decision to close some of their respective airspace as a precautionary measure when a 20-ton rocket body was on the verge of reentering the Earth’s atmosphere, as reported by the paper. Ultimately, the rocket body ended up plunging into the Pacific Ocean, confirmed by the researchers. The temporary closure of the airspace led to the delay of 645 aircraft for approximately 30 minutes, with additional measures taken to reroute some of the planes that were already mid-flight. “This disruption is undeniably occurring, and experts predict that such incidents will become more frequent in the future,” stated Boley. According to researchers, the mounting threat of falling space debris poses a growing risk to airplanes.
