A significant tornado outbreak is forecasted to impact parts of the Southern United States this weekend, coinciding with the busy holiday travel period. The potential for strong tornadoes, damaging straight-line winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall looms large, particularly on Saturday and into Saturday night. This impending severe weather event follows closely on the heels of multiple tornadoes that ravaged Texas and Louisiana just days ago, serving as a stark reminder that tornadoes can strike at any time of the year.
Current Situation
Presently, thunderstorms are active across certain regions as depicted in the map below, with accompanying severe weather watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
Saturday’s Weather Outlook
In their latest severe weather outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has assigned a level 4 out of 5 for severe weather for portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and western Alabama. Areas within this zone, including Monroe in Louisiana and Jackson in Mississippi, are at heightened risk. Notably, this is the first instance since July 15 that the SPC has highlighted such a severe level 4 risk in their forecast, marking only the 12th time this year that a level 4 or higher risk has been identified. The SPC cautions that this area may experience potent, long-track tornadoes of EF3 intensity or stronger should the necessary atmospheric conditions align.
Saturday is expected to witness two distinct rounds of severe thunderstorms in the region. Initially, supercell thunderstorms are likely to develop, potentially spawning tornadoes along with hail and strong winds. Subsequently, a squall line of severe thunderstorms is anticipated to move from west to east across the outlined area into Saturday night, bringing with it damaging straight-line winds and possible embedded tornadoes. The primary timeframe of concern spans from Saturday afternoon through the night.
Additional hazards through Saturday night include the threat of localized flooding due to heavy rainfall stretching from eastern Texas to the Tennessee Valley. For more detailed weather tracking specific to your location, refer to the 15-minute forecast details within our Premium Pro service.
Sunday’s Weather Outlook
The severe weather threat is anticipated to persist as storms progress eastward on Sunday, encompassing much of the Southeast and extending northward into sections of the upper Ohio Valley and Appalachians. Storm activity may commence during the early hours across eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, the western Carolinas, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle before advancing eastward throughout the day. The region with the highest likelihood of severe weather encompasses Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia, including major cities like Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, and Roanoke. While straight-line damaging thunderstorm winds are the primary concern, there remains a possibility of tornadoes, both within the line of severe storms and as isolated events preceding the squall line.
