A government-commissioned panel of experts largely supported Japan’s new energy policy on Wednesday, which aims to increase the share of renewables to up to half of electricity needs by 2040 while emphasizing the use of nuclear power. The goal is to meet the rising power demand in the age of artificial intelligence and align with decarbonization targets.
The Industry Ministry presented a draft plan for final review by a panel of 16 members, predominantly pro-nuclear individuals from various sectors including business, academia, and civil groups. The plan advocates for maximizing the utilization of nuclear energy, a shift from the previous policy of phasing out nuclear power following the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011. The aftermath of the crisis led to the displacement of residents and a lasting anti-nuclear sentiment in Japan.
The proposed energy policy is scheduled for Cabinet approval by March after a consultation period, intending to replace the current energy policy established in 2021. According to the new proposal, nuclear energy is targeted to contribute 20% to Japan’s energy mix by 2040, a significant increase from the 8.5% share in the previous year. Additionally, the plan outlines ambitions to expand renewables to encompass 40-50% of the energy supply, up from 22.9%, while reducing coal-fired power to 30-40% from nearly 70% in the preceding year.
The existing energy plan set targets of 20-22% for nuclear energy, 36-38% for renewables, and 41% for fossil fuels by 2030. The demand for low-carbon energy sources such as renewables and nuclear power is escalating due to the requirements of data centers using AI and semiconductor factories nationwide.
Industry Minister Yoji Muto, present at the panel meeting on Wednesday, emphasized the necessity for Japan to enhance its energy security by not overly relying on a single energy source. Muto underlined the importance of securing decarbonized energy for Japan’s future growth, advocating for a dual approach of maximizing the use of both renewables and nuclear power.
Japan has committed to achieving net zero emissions of climate-warming gases by 2050 and a 73% reduction by 2040 compared to 2013 levels. The draft energy plan positions renewables as the primary power source and calls for the development of next-generation energy sources such as solar batteries and portable solar panels.
The plan acknowledges various risk scenarios, including the possibility of lower-than-expected investment and cost reductions in renewables. Nevertheless, some experts have raised concerns about the lack of a feasibility outlook for 2040 or a clear roadmap for the phaseout of fossil fuels in the plan.
In a bid to achieve the 20% nuclear energy target, all 33 operational reactors in Japan would need to be back online, with only 14 currently in operation following the Fukushima disaster. Experts caution that meeting this target may prove challenging given the current pace of safety checks conducted by the nuclear regulation authority.
