The downfall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad marked the culmination of a tumultuous year for the Iranian regime. The Islamic Republic faced significant setbacks in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, weakening the influence of its supposed Axis of Resistance. Its currency plummeted to the lowest value globally, and as Israel decimated its proxy forces, the U.S. elected a president that Iran vehemently despises, whom they had attempted to assassinate for years. Below is a review of the setbacks endured by Ayatollah Ali Khameini and his administration over the past year:
In April, following an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Syria, Iran retaliated by launching over 300 drones and missiles towards Israel. However, Israel collaborated with the U.S., Jordan, and Saudi Arabia to intercept and neutralize almost all incoming threats.
The untimely death of former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash during a remote visit was attributed to dense fog by Iran. Raisi, a protege and potential successor of Iran’s supreme leader Khameini, suffered this tragic accident.
While Iran introduced a new president in the summer, Israel conducted a covert operation to eliminate Hamas commander Ismail Haniyeh during his visit to Tehran for the inauguration. Haniyeh, residing in a VIP government guest house, fell victim to an explosive device detonated by Israel.
Israel’s Defense Forces (IDF) eliminated Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during a routine patrol in Gaza’s Rafah city. Sinwar was the orchestrator of the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel and a top target for the IDF.
Hamas suffered significant losses in fighters and leadership due to Israel’s relentless attacks, diminishing its threat level on Israel’s borders, contrary to Iran’s expectations.
Following the U.S. election results, the Iranian rial plummeted to a record low, amidst concerns that the new administration might reinstate a “maximum pressure” policy on Iran.
The Iranian currency has depreciated by 46% this year, solidifying its position as the world’s least valuable currency.
Iran, seeking retribution for the 2019 killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani approved by then-President Trump, was discovered to be plotting against the president-elect as per U.S. intelligence reports.
After withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, the Trump administration imposed severe sanctions on Iran to curb its support for proxies abroad, prohibiting U.S. citizens from engaging in trade with Iran or handling Iranian funds.
The administration also penalized foreign entities conducting business with Iran by severing their access to the U.S. dollar.
President Joe Biden frequently waived the enforcement of these sanctions in an effort to coax Tehran back to the negotiating table, aimed at preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and avoiding a surge in global oil prices.
Iran acquired more than $10 billion through a State Department waiver that permitted Iraq to continue purchasing energy from Iran, a move justified by the Biden
The delicate truce appeared to have held for several weeks as Syrian rebels successfully pushed back Iran’s Quds forces, an arm of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, in a stunning victory that saw them seize control of Damascus and force out President Bashar al-Assad. Iran had been actively supporting Assad’s regime in Syria ever since the civil war erupted in 2011, but their presence had significantly waned due to ongoing conflicts in other parts of the Middle East.
Following the rebels’ triumph, a new government is poised to take the helm in Syria, one that is expected to be led by Sunni Muslims who harbor animosity towards Iran’s Shiite leadership. This shift in power dynamics has dealt a heavy blow to Iran, as they have lost a crucial supply route through Syria that they had utilized to arm Hezbollah in their ongoing conflict against Israel.
The fall of Assad and the subsequent rise of a new government in Syria mark a significant setback for Iran, underscoring the challenging geopolitical landscape they now face in the region. The implications of these developments are far-reaching, with Iran forced to reassess its strategic priorities and alliances in light of these recent events.
Furthermore, the changing dynamics in Syria have not gone unnoticed on the global stage, particularly with the United States under the leadership of President Trump closely monitoring the situation. The evolving power struggle in the region has the potential to reshape longstanding alliances and rivalries, with implications that could reverberate across the Middle East and beyond.
As Iran grapples with the fallout of these significant shifts, the international community remains on high alert, closely monitoring the situation for any potential escalation of tensions or conflicts in the region. The ramifications of these recent developments are likely to be felt for years to come, as the balance of power in the Middle East continues to undergo seismic changes with far-reaching consequences.
