The nuclear submarine “Suffren” is shown in Cherbourg, northwest France, in a photo taken on July 12, 2019 by Ludovic Marin/AFP/Getty Images. There is a shift in dynamics in Europe as the longstanding American commitment to Europe’s defense against Russia is now seen as more transactional under the current White House administration. European leaders are facing the challenge of stepping up their defense efforts, with calls for increased spending and a potential European “nuclear umbrella” being considered. France and the United Kingdom, both possessing nuclear capabilities, could play a key role in providing deterrence closer to home. Talks of extending nuclear protection to European allies have gained traction, with leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor hopeful Friedrich Merz expressing interest in the idea. While France has long maintained a sovereign nuclear force, there is increasing support from European countries for a more collaborative defense approach. The UK, part of the US-dominated NATO command, already offers strategic protection to European allies through its nuclear warheads. Some leaders, like Polish President Andrzej Duda, are urging for increased US support, including the deployment of US nuclear weapons in Poland. Despite these discussions, the ultimate goal remains to ensure the safety and security of European nations in the face of evolving global threats.
According to nuclear historian Yannick Pincé, France’s nuclear capabilities are often underestimated due to the country’s smaller arsenal compared to the US, making it an easy target for dismissal even by top Western generals like retired Gen. Michel Yakovleff. The US possesses a vast and diverse nuclear arsenal, allowing for a more strategic approach in potential thermonuclear conflicts, such as a graduated response rather than unleashing its full firepower.
In contrast, France’s nuclear arsenal, consisting of submarines and bombers, was historically designed as a last resort defense against Cold-War era threats from Russia, targeting key sites in Soviet territories to deter enemy aggression. This highlights a key challenge for a European-centered nuclear umbrella, as the lack of a shared nuclear culture among European nations may hinder effective coordination.
French President Macron has suggested involving allies in France’s nuclear exercises to showcase its capabilities and decision-making processes. However, he remains firm on retaining sole authority over launching a nuclear strike, emphasizing that the decision rests solely with him.
The UK has actively worked to enhance NATO’s nuclear deterrence capabilities, ensuring allies understand the fundamentals of nuclear deterrence. While Macron’s proposal may not start from scratch given existing extended deterrence agreements, it signifies a potential shift in how European allies engage with nuclear strategy.
Recent developments, such as US nuclear bomber flights over Sweden to mark its NATO accession anniversary and reports of potential redeployment of nuclear warheads to the UK, indicate a heightened focus on European security amid rising tensions with Russia. While enhancing Europe’s nuclear arsenal is a complex and lengthy process, it plays a crucial role in maintaining deterrence against Moscow’s formidable nuclear capabilities.
Ensuring the credibility of Europe’s nuclear capabilities is crucial. Enhanced cooperation with allies on nuclear matters could significantly strengthen deterrence efforts, as suggested by Kulesa. This may involve allies providing air-to-air refueling for French bombers or anti-submarine warfare support for British and French nuclear submarines.
Concerns have been raised about the effectiveness of Britain’s deterrence capabilities, given reduced military investments over the years and reliance on US supply chains. The UK has experienced two publicly acknowledged failed nuclear missile tests in the past eight years, raising further questions.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer recently pledged what the government described as the largest defense spending increase since the Cold War, citing an increasingly perilous global environment. Meanwhile, other non-nuclear European allies are also ramping up investments in conventional weaponry, a move seen as significant by analysts.
Kulesa emphasized that nuclear weapons alone are not a solution, highlighting the importance of combining conventional and nuclear forces for effective deterrence against Russia. The uncertainty surrounding American commitment and involvement under the Trump administration adds another layer of complexity to the situation.
Reporting by CNN’s Serene Nourisson contributed to this article. To access more CNN news and newsletters, sign up for an account at CNN.com.
