A prolonged period of severe thunderstorm activity is set to kick off today and continue throughout the weekend across the Midwest, South, and East regions. The potential for strong tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding looms large with this dangerous weather system.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center has raised the alert level to 4 out of 5 for severe weather on both Friday and Saturday. Such a high threat level is rare, occurring only around 11 to 12 times a year, and is usually reserved for scenarios where supercells capable of producing significant tornadoes or long-lasting squall lines with widespread damaging winds are anticipated.
It is crucial to take this threat seriously and be prepared in advance by knowing the location of safe shelters and having multiple ways to receive weather alerts, especially since severe storms may strike during nighttime hours in certain areas.
Here’s a breakdown of what to expect each day:
**Friday-Friday Night Forecast:**
– **Locations:** The Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and surrounding regions face an increased risk of severe storms, with areas like St. Louis, Paducah in Kentucky, Memphis in Tennessee, and Des Moines in Iowa highlighted as high-risk zones.
– **Timing:** Severe storm activity is likely to commence in the late afternoon in the western regions and progress eastward through the evening and overnight hours.
– **Threats:** Expect intense damaging wind gusts, potential tornadoes reaching EF2 strength or higher, and large hail up to the size of baseballs. Tornadoes could form within severe storm lines sweeping across the Midwest and in isolated supercell formations in the mid-South.
**Saturday-Saturday Night Forecast:**
– **Locations:** The Deep South, including areas in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and the Florida Panhandle, are at elevated risk for severe storms.
– **Timing:** Severe weather may develop in the morning and intensify through the afternoon and overnight hours, moving from west to east across the highlighted threat zones.
– **Threats:** Widespread severe storms are expected in regions from eastern Louisiana to parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle, creating favorable conditions for tornadic supercell thunderstorms. Some severe weather effects could extend as far north as Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania.
The NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center is forecasting the likelihood of multiple significant tornadoes, including some long-track tornadoes, as well as widespread damaging wind gusts and large hail. Heavy rain may also lead to flash flooding in parts of Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Tennessee, and Kentucky. As the weekend progresses, a cold front is expected to bring more severe storms to areas stretching from the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast, affecting cities such as Charleston, South Carolina; Raleigh, North Carolina; Philadelphia; and Washington, D.C. The threat of severe weather will persist through Sunday, with the main concerns being damaging wind gusts, potential tornadoes, and localized flash flooding. This weather pattern is typical for the spring months, with the jet stream dipping southward and a strong low-pressure system forming along a cold front, drawing moisture from the Gulf and resulting in the development of thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and other severe weather.
