In the 2024 NFL offseason, the Minnesota Vikings made strategic moves to strengthen their quarterback lineup following Kirk Cousins’ departure. Among these moves, the team garnered attention for drafting Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. However, the signing of Sam Darnold proved to be pivotal in the Vikings’ successful season. Initially viewed as a temporary bridge quarterback, Darnold excelled in the starting role after McCarthy suffered a preseason knee injury. Darnold’s performance showcased his potential, reigniting the promise he showed as the No. 3 pick in the 2018 NFL draft under Kevin O’Connell’s system.
As the 2024 NFL season draws to a close, Darnold’s impending free agency raises questions about his future contract. USA TODAY explores his anticipated earnings and the evolving quarterback market landscape. Despite signing a one-year $10 million deal with the Vikings, including $8.75 million guaranteed, Darnold’s contract ranks modestly among quarterbacks. His exceptional 2024 campaign places him in line for a substantial raise in his next deal.
Statistically, Darnold has excelled this season, ranking among the top NFL quarterbacks in various categories. His impressive performance positions him favorably for a lucrative contract extension. While speculation surrounds the terms of his next deal, Darnold may opt for a short-term agreement to capitalize on his current success and secure a more lucrative contract in the future. One potential model for his contract projection is Baker Mayfield, who, like Darnold, struggled initially and found success with a new team later in his career.
Overall, Darnold’s resurgence in 2024 sets the stage for a significant contract negotiation, reflecting his value as a top-tier quarterback in the evolving NFL landscape.
Buccaneers, striving for success, managed to turn his initial one-year trial into a lucrative three-year agreement potentially valued at $100 million. Here are the specifics of Mayfield’s contract with Tampa Bay:
Baker Mayfield contract particulars
Term: 3 years
Total value: $100 million
Average annual value (AAV): $33.33 million
Guaranteed money: $50 million
It’s conceivable to envision Darnold considering a similar deal, especially if the Vikings continue to show interest in him. A three-year contract of this caliber could enable Minnesota to further develop Darnold while grooming McCarthy to eventually assume the starting role in a scenario reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love.
Another contract that might pique Darnold’s interest is Geno Smith’s three-year agreement with the Seattle Seahawks in the 2023 off-season. Smith, once a journeyman and former New York Jets quarterback, found success with Seattle, solidifying his position as a quality starter. Here are the specifics of Smith’s contract:
Geno Smith contract details
Term: 3 years
Total value: $75 million
Average annual value (AAV): $25 million
Guaranteed money: $40 million
The key distinction between Smith and Darnold lies in their potential upside. Smith, aged 32, took over as the Seahawks’ starter following the trade of Russell Wilson, whereas Darnold, at 28, may command a deal closer to Mayfield’s, if not slightly more expensive due to the continually escalating quarterback market.
Hence, an estimated $110 million over three years for Darnold wouldn’t be surprising. This projection slightly exceeds his Spotrac market value of $35.7 million, reflecting the potential for a modest bidding war to drive up costs.
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Here is a forecast of what Darnold’s upcoming contract might entail:
Sam Darnold contract projection
Term: 3 years
Total value: $110 million
Average annual value (AAV): $36.7 million
Guaranteed money: $55 million
Darnold’s value could potentially surpass this projection if multiple teams, such as the Vikings, Tennessee Titans, New York Giants, and Las Vegas Raiders, express interest. Conversely, his overall value might decrease if teams favor selecting quarterbacks in the 2025 NFL Draft rather than pursuing free agents like Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward.
Regardless, Darnold’s skill set is likely to be in demand this off-season. Whether remaining with the Vikings or transitioning to a fifth NFL team, he is poised to capitalize on a career-best performance.
