Russia poses the greatest threat to Sweden due to its aggressive attitude towards the West, the Scandinavian nation’s security service Sapo has said.
It wrote in its annual report that while Sweden joining the Nato military alliance had strengthened its security, it had also led to increased Russian intelligence activity.
Sapo also said that the security situation in Sweden is serious and may get worse -with foreign powers operating in more threatening ways and resorting to hybrid warfare, alongside incidents of violent extremism.
Charlotte von Essen, the head of Sapo, said there was a “tangible risk that the security situation can deteriorate further” in a way that may be hard to predict.
Sweden became a Nato member last year, seeing it as the best guarantee against Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
That January, its civil defence minister warned “there could be war in Sweden” in the near future due to Russian aggression.
Sapo said on Tuesday that Russia’s intelligence activities were primarily aimed at undermining cohesion between Nato members, counteracting Western support for Ukraine, and circumventing sanctions.
It said these activities showed Russia was becoming “increasingly offensive and risk-prone” in the face of a build up of Swedish, and wider European, defences.
“When gathering intelligence, the Russian security and intelligence services use a wide range of resources and different platforms,” the agency wrote, adding that these had been limited by expelling intelligence officers.
Ms von Essen said Swedes needed to be vigilant about “widespread anti-state narratives and conspiracy theories” that seek to act as a destabilising force, adding that it was “important that we do not normalise the new situation”.
In its report, Sapo mentioned suspicious incidents involving infrastructure and which countries may have been behind “in some cases”.
A series of undersea cables and gas pipelines have been damaged in suspected attacks since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, prompting Nato to launch a monitoring mission in the sea.
The latest such breach was reported last month near Gotland – Sweden’s largest island.
The Swedish government also identified Iran and China as posing significant security threats to the Nordic country.
Last year, Sapo accused Iranian intelligence of hacking into a text messaging service to send 15,000 messages to Swedes, after several Quran burnings.
Sapo’s 2025 report said foreign intelligence threats included cyber-attacks, technology theft and tracking the movement of foreign dissidents living in Sweden.
It also said the threat of terrorism remains high, but was diversifying to not just include “ideologically motivated actors”, but also violence instigated by a foreign power and young people with a fascination with violence who have been radicalised online.
Ms von Essen said that Sapo had seen examples of nations including Russia and Iran inducing individuals, often young people, to carry out acts of violence.
Serious attacks have occurred in France, Germany and Austria, the Sapo chief said.
Sweden itself was dealing with the aftermath of “the terrible incident in Orebro”, she noted, referring to Sweden’s worst mass shooting last month in which a gunman attacked an education centre in central Sweden, killing nine people.
Sapo said violent Islamist extremism and violent right-wing terrorism remained prominent threats.
Sweden remains on high alert for terrorism – with the threat level assessed at four out of a five-point scale.
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