Nitin Goel finds himself facing challenges as a result of the shorter winter. For five decades, his family’s clothing business in Ludhiana, specializing in jackets and sweaters, is now shifting focus due to the early summer onset. The change in climate has led to a decline in sales, prompting the company to switch to producing t-shirts. Despite a brief respite during the Covid pandemic, the trend of diminishing winter seasons has impacted businesses across India, disrupting cropping patterns and strategic plans.
The recent data from the Indian Meteorological Department highlights the alarming rise in temperatures, making February the hottest in 125 years. The unusual weather patterns are expected to persist, with above-normal temperatures and heatwaves forecasted from March to May.
For Goel and other small business owners, adapting to these erratic weather conditions has meant significant adjustments in their operations. His company’s supply chain has been affected, with retailers shifting to a “sale or return” model, increasing risks for manufacturers like him. To retain clients, Goel has been compelled to offer larger discounts and incentives, straining his profit margins.
In a different region of India, the scorching heat has devastated Alphonso mango orchards, leading to a drastic reduction in production. Farmers, like Vidyadhar Joshi, are grappling with lower yields and increased expenses on irrigation and fertilizers to salvage their crops. The potential losses are exacerbated by the lack of labor, as workers are being sent home due to the reduced workload.
The impact of the rising temperatures extends beyond the fruit orchards, posing a threat to staple crops like wheat, chickpea, and rapeseed. While government officials express optimism about the wheat harvest, experts warn of potential yield reductions similar to those witnessed in 2022 due to heatwaves.
The economic repercussions of these climatic changes are concerning, with fears of water scarcity for agriculture and the need for expensive wheat imports looming on the horizon. The prolonged ban on exports further complicates the situation, raising uncertainties about the future stability of India’s agricultural sector.
Amidst Concerns of Climate Change Impacting India’s Agricultural Sector
Recent reports from the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (Ceew) have highlighted a concerning trend in India’s agricultural landscape. With irrigation water levels at only 32% of capacity, a drop from 37% recorded the previous year, the implications for fruit and vegetable yields, as well as the dairy sector, are significant. Some regions are already witnessing a 15% decline in milk production, raising worries about food security and inflation.
Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, cautions that these challenges could jeopardize the central bank’s 4% inflation target. The recent moderation in food prices after a prolonged period of highs had prompted rate cuts, but any further disruptions in agricultural output could reverse this trend.
India’s GDP growth, propped up by increased rural consumption following a slump last year, could face setbacks if the farm-led recovery falters. While urban households have tightened their belts and private investment remains lackluster, the resilience of the agricultural sector has been crucial for overall economic stability.
Ceew and other think tanks advocate for urgent measures to address the impact of recurring heatwaves. Improved weather forecasting systems, expanded agriculture insurance coverage, and climate-smart farming practices are among the recommendations to mitigate risks and enhance productivity. As a nation heavily reliant on agriculture, India is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
Studies by Ceew reveal that three-quarters of Indian districts are considered “extreme event hotspots,” with 40% experiencing a shifting trend in natural disasters. Areas prone to floods are now facing more frequent and severe droughts, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies to cope with evolving climatic patterns.
Forecasts suggest that India could lose nearly 6% of daily working hours due to heat stress by 2030, potentially translating to significant economic losses across key sectors. Climate Transparency estimates that the country could face a $159 billion income loss by 2021, equivalent to 5.4% of its GDP, if action is not taken promptly to address heat-related challenges.
The looming threat of heatwaves not only poses risks to livelihoods but also raises concerns about India’s economic resilience. Urgent interventions are needed to safeguard against a future where extreme weather events disrupt daily life and destabilize the economy.
As India grapples with the impacts of climate change on its agricultural sector, vigilance and proactive measures will be crucial in ensuring food security, economic stability, and the well-being of its populace. Stay informed by following BBC News India on Instagram, YouTube, and Facebook for the latest updates on this evolving situation.
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