The discussion surrounding the potential expansion of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament isn’t merely a debate; it’s a complex calculation. While the prevailing sentiment in collegiate sports leans toward an increase from 68 teams to 72 or 76, driven largely by the desires of the SEC and Big Ten commissioners, NCAA senior vice president of basketball, Dan Gavitt, has been vocal in emphasizing that a resolution is far from definite. “I cannot foresee the outcome at this moment,” Gavitt conveyed to CBS Sports recently.
The underlying reason for this uncertainty is both logical and straightforward. The expansion of the NCAA Tournament comes with a significant financial burden. If there isn’t a guarantee that schools and conferences won’t suffer financial losses due to expansion, then what is the purpose? This is where the financial calculations come into play.
Let’s consider a scenario where the tournament expands to 76 teams, resulting in four additional games likely scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday preceding the official start of the tournament on Thursday. It’s important to note that we already have two play-in games on Tuesday and Wednesday, aired on TruTV. Essentially, expanding the tournament would mean having four games on each of those days instead of the current two.
The critical question to address is the value these additional games bring to the television networks. According to the NCAA, last year’s four play-in games collectively attracted 6.2 million viewers, a respectable figure for college basketball, particularly on TruTV, a relatively niche channel under Turner Sports. However, this viewership falls short of the 8.53 million average viewership for the Thursday and Friday first-round games.
The key consideration here is whether fans and viewers will embrace the Tuesday/Wednesday games or continue to perceive them as play-ins. This evaluation is, in many ways, a litmus test for the NCAA Tournament as a cultural phenomenon. The Thursday commencement is so deeply ingrained in American society that altering it could prove challenging.
While scheduling competitive matchups featuring prominent teams on Tuesday and Wednesday is one option, it would also mean saturating viewers with six consecutive days of college basketball programming. Will this be deemed excessive? Will there be sufficient audience engagement to justify CBS and Turner’s substantial investment in these extra games?
Undoubtedly, expanding the tournament will come at a considerable cost to the NCAA. Let’s delve into some basic arithmetic. Each team participating in the NCAA Tournament earns a revenue unit for their conference, with additional units earned for each round progressed. These units are valued at approximately $2 million each.
Adding eight teams to the field would require generating $16 million upfront, not to mention the added expenses for facilities, travel, catering, personnel, and more that come with accommodating more games and teams. Any expansion plan that fails to enhance the bottom line risks diminishing the overall revenue pool shared by all stakeholders. This becomes especially concerning at a time when athletic departments within power conferences
The settlement between the House and NCAA is the main point of discussion. Traditional arguments against expansion remain valid but are becoming less relevant. Concerns about weakening the bubble, confusing office pools, and benefiting mediocre teams are overshadowed by the potential financial gains. The decision on tournament expansion hinges on determining the willingness of CBS and Turner to pay for additional games. While a significant increase to 96 teams seems unlikely due to financial constraints, a more modest expansion to 72 or 76 teams is being considered. There is no predetermined outcome, with the possibility of no expansion or a small-scale expansion being the likely scenarios. The debate on expansion intensified in 2022 following concerns raised by the SEC about automatic qualifiers impacting power conference teams. However, current projections show that both the SEC and Big Ten are set to have a strong presence in the tournament field this year. Careful consideration is needed to ensure any expansion maintains the integrity and appeal of the tournament. The value of potential matchups and viewership for additional games will play a crucial role in the decision-making process. Ultimately, executives at CBS and Turner hold the key to whether tournament expansion will proceed.
