According to experts, Ukraine possesses abundant scandium, a rare earth element. However, detailed information on these reserves is classified by the Ukrainian government and industry reports. Scandium is often obtained as a byproduct of ore processing or from processed tailings or residues and finds its use in various applications, from military equipment to sporting goods. Additionally, Ukraine boasts reserves of other rare earth elements such as cerium, dysprosium, erbium, gadolinium, holmium, lanthanum, lutetium, neodymium, praseodymium, samarium, terbium, thulium, and yttrium, as highlighted by Robert Muggah, principal of SecDev, a Canadian geopolitical risk analysis company.
Furthermore, Ukraine harbors critical minerals crucial for weapons systems, aircraft, and advanced technology, as identified by the U.S. Geological Survey. These critical minerals include lithium, aluminum, cobalt, graphite, and titanium. Notably, Ukraine possesses significant reserves of titanium, graphite, lithium, and uranium among others, positioning it as a key player in the global production of these critical minerals.
Estimates suggest that the value of Ukraine’s critical minerals could be substantial, potentially reaching up to $14.8 trillion according to a 2023 study by Forbes Ukraine. However, the precise value remains uncertain due to fluctuating commodity prices, the necessity for new geological surveys, and the logistical challenges associated with extraction and refinement. In terms of hydrocarbon reserves, Ukraine holds substantial quantities of coal, natural gas, and oil, with some resources situated in territories currently controlled by Russia.
While there are no ongoing rare earth projects in Ukraine, the development of other critical minerals and hydrocarbons is more feasible with significant investments. Nevertheless, reviving energy-intensive mining operations post the Russian invasion poses challenges, particularly in terms of repairing the damaged power grid. Additionally, a portion of Ukraine’s natural resources are now located in areas under Russian military control, necessitating strategic considerations for future extraction efforts.
In that area, based on SecDev’s assessments. NBC News has reported that Russia has floated the idea of granting the United States access to crucial minerals located in Russian-occupied territories. “Determining the feasibility of Trump’s request for $500 billion worth of Ukrainian resources hinges on the specific resources he is alluding to,” stated Muggah. “If Trump is solely fixated on rare earth elements, then his demands are entirely impractical.” However, Trump has alluded to a broader spectrum of resources as well. If the U.S. has its sights set on a more extensive array of resources beyond rare earths, critical minerals, and hydrocarbons, then “there is potential,” according to Muggah. China stands out as the predominant supplier of rare earth elements. China exercises significant control over the extraction and processing of rare earths, causing apprehension in the United States and other nations that China might disrupt the rare earth supply chain for an adversary. Both China and Russia hold influential positions in the global critical minerals supply chain, posing a potential vulnerability for the United States in times of crisis. Experts suggest that if the United States were to gain access to Ukraine’s mineral resources, it could alleviate America’s reliance on China and Russia for critical minerals to some extent.
