By Julie Ingwersen
CHICAGO (Reuters) – American farmers are adjusting their planting strategies for the upcoming season, opting to increase corn acreage while reducing soybean production. This shift is driven by the need to maximize profits and safeguard against potential impacts of President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, according to industry experts and analysts.
Agricultural economist Frayne Olson from North Dakota State University noted that corn is currently more financially advantageous compared to soybeans. Some farmers may see a modest profit margin per bushel of corn, as opposed to soybeans and other crops where prices have dipped below production costs. Iowa State University economist Chad Hart emphasized that given the current cost structure, corn presents the most promising opportunity for profitability in 2025.
The decisions on crop planting, typically finalized during the winter months, have significant implications for corn and soybean production, the two primary cash crops in the U.S. These grains are essential for animal feed, cooking oils, and renewable fuels, with the U.S. being the leading corn exporter and the second-largest soybean supplier globally.
With global corn reserves anticipated to reach a ten-year low this year, a substantial U.S. corn harvest would help bolster inventories and supply to international markets. Additionally, as more U.S.-grown corn remains domestically consumed compared to soybeans, corn stands as a more secure choice in the face of potential tariffs.
A recent forecast by ag lender CoBank projected a 4% increase in corn acreage to 94.55 million acres for 2025, while soybean plantings are expected to decline by 3.6% to 84.0 million acres compared to the previous year. Farmers are entering the third consecutive year of decreasing crop revenues, navigating challenging decisions on crop selection and planting volumes. Despite the forecasted decline in crop income, relief from government aid is anticipated to help farmers achieve a marginal profit in 2025.
Economists caution that current low prices for major crops like corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton will pose challenges for American farmers in generating substantial profits. Eric Kroupa, a farmer from central South Dakota, emphasized the importance of minimizing losses when selecting crops this year.
Trade tensions, particularly Trump’s tariffs on key U.S. grain buyers, may further boost corn’s appeal while dampening interest in soybeans. China, a significant importer of U.S. soybeans, faces additional tariffs, heightening the vulnerability of soybean prices to trade disruptions. In contrast, U.S. corn exports diversify to various markets, lessening the impact of these trade uncertainties.
The ongoing trade disputes, including recent tariff escalations, echo previous conflicts that led to China shifting its soybean and corn purchases to Brazil. The USDA projects that for the current marketing year, Brazil will dominate world soybean exports with a 58% share, compared to the United States’ 27%.
As farmers prepare for the upcoming
Purchases over the winter are typically made well in advance of the planting season in April and May. However, this year, due to low prices and uncertainty regarding trade, some growers are opting to postpone their planting decisions until spring. Nancy Johnson, the executive director of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association, noted that many individuals are hesitant to make final decisions at the current moment. She emphasized that adjustments to the last few acres will likely be made at the very last minute based on the real-time circumstances.
The corn futures market has seen a recent rally, indicating profitability for growers. After dropping to a four-year low below $4 a bushel in August, benchmark Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures have rebounded, surpassing $5 this month and rising by approximately 9% since the beginning of the year. Conversely, soybeans, known for their smaller yields, experienced a low below $10 a bushel in December, with a more moderate recovery following.
David Justison, a farmer managing 9,000 acres of corn, soybeans, and wheat in south-central Illinois, made the decision to reduce his winter wheat acreage last fall. This choice freed up around 300 acres, where he intends to most likely plant corn instead of soybeans. Justison believes that opting for corn might yield slightly better economic results. These insights were reported by Julie Ingwersen, with additional contributions from P.J. Huffstutter. The editing of the article was carried out by Emily Schmall and David Gregorio.
