By Julie Ingwersen
CHICAGO (Reuters) – Farmers in the U.S. are planning to adjust their crop planting this spring, favoring corn over soybeans in a bid to increase profitability and protect themselves from potential tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, according to growers and analysts.
Agricultural economist Frayne Olson from North Dakota State University noted that corn is currently more profitable compared to soybeans. Iowa State University economist Chad Hart added that some farmers could see a small profit margin per bushel of corn, while soybeans and other crops are currently facing prices below production costs.
Planting decisions, crucial for the production of corn and soybeans, are typically finalized in winter. These two crops are key cash crops in the U.S., primarily used for animal feed, cooking oils, and renewable fuels. With the U.S. being the world’s largest corn exporter and the second-largest soybean supplier after Brazil, a significant U.S. corn harvest could help replenish global corn stockpiles, which are projected to reach a ten-year low this year.
As a result, U.S. farmers are projected to plant approximately 94.55 million acres of corn in 2025, representing a 4% increase from the previous year. In contrast, soybean plantings are expected to decrease by about 3.6% to 84.0 million acres. Declining crop revenues over the past few years have made planting decisions more challenging for growers, with government disaster relief providing some relief amid falling crop income.
Amidst trade tensions, Trump’s tariffs on U.S. grain buyers, particularly China, may further tilt the scale in favor of corn planting. China, a significant soybean purchaser, is currently engaged in retaliatory tariffs with the U.S., which could impact soybean prices. Corn, on the other hand, faces fewer trade disruptions due to a more diversified customer base.
Farmers like Eric Kroupa from South Dakota are making planting decisions based on minimizing losses, given the overall low crop prices. With ongoing trade tensions and shifting market dynamics, farmers are having to adapt their strategies to navigate the uncertainties in the agricultural sector.
During the winter, well in advance of the planting season typically scheduled for April and May, some growers are hesitating to finalize their planting decisions due to the current environment of low prices and trade-related uncertainty. Nancy Johnson, the executive director of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association, noted that many individuals are holding off on making definitive choices at the moment. She emphasized that adjustments to the remaining acres will occur at the very last minute, depending on the prevailing circumstances at that time.
The price of corn futures has experienced a recent upsurge, indicating a potentially profitable outlook for growers. After dropping to a four-year low below $4 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) in August, corn futures have rebounded to surpass $5 this month, marking an approximately 9% increase since the beginning of the year. On the other hand, soybeans, known for yielding less, hit a four-year low below $10 per bushel in December but have since shown a modest recovery.
David Justison, a farmer managing corn, soybeans, and wheat on a vast 9,000-acre farm in south-central Illinois, made the decision to reduce his winter wheat acreage last fall. This adjustment freed up approximately 300 acres, which Justison is now leaning towards planting with corn rather than soybeans. He justified this choice by pointing out the potentially more favorable economic returns expected from planting corn in those specific fields.
(Reported by Julie Ingwersen, with additional contributions from P.J. Huffstutter. Edited by Emily Schmall and David Gregorio)
