Last year’s spring saw a deviation from the norm as warmer temperatures enveloped the southern regions, with the greatest anomaly observed in the Great Lakes area, as depicted in the NOAA map below. Notably, Arkansas, Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia experienced their second warmest spring in 130 years, according to NOAA’s records for spring 2024.
Forecasting ahead to spring 2025, the Midwest, particularly the Great Lakes region, stands out as an area where we have high confidence in predicting a wet March through May, as indicated by the dark green shading on the map below. This projection reflects the tendency for a wet spring, similar to the previous year, where both Iowa and Wisconsin encountered their third wettest springs on record.
Conversely, a noticeable shift in the forecast points towards a drier-than-average spring in parts of Louisiana and Texas, contrasting the heavy rainfall experienced in the same regions during April and May of the previous year. The outlook map highlights a pronounced region of below-average precipitation extending from the northern Gulf Coast to the Desert Southwest.
Looking towards the West, spring 2025 is anticipated to introduce a more widespread and severe drought compared to the previous year, with regions spanning from the Plains to the West experiencing heightened dry conditions. The Climate Prediction Center of NOAA warns that this extended drought could pave the way for an elevated risk of wildfires during the upcoming summer months.
In the Northwest, following a relatively average spring in terms of temperatures and slightly below-average precipitation in 2024, a cooler and wetter trend is expected for March, especially in Oregon, Washington, and parts of Idaho. Despite the region’s typical decline in precipitation towards the end of spring, the forecast suggests a potential for even drier conditions, raising concerns for wildfire risks once vegetation dries out in the summer.
Jonathan Erdman, a seasoned meteorologist at weather.com with a passion for extreme and unusual weather phenomena, has been covering national and international weather patterns since 1996. For more insights and updates, connect with him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook, and Bluesky.
