As we move forward, the grip of Old Man Winter is expected to loosen across much of the central and eastern United States, with occasional bursts of Arctic air still forecasted, according to AccuWeather’s long-range meteorologists. Cold air building up in eastern Canada is likely to seep into parts of the Northeast in March.
Warmer days are ahead for the Central and Southern states, bringing relief from the freezing temperatures experienced in February. With the arrival of March, milder conditions are expected for the Northeast as well. AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson noted that simply turning off harsh winds and bringing out the sun can significantly improve conditions, and many areas can expect just that in the upcoming weekend and week.
Sunshine has the power to lift spirits and erase the winter blues, as seen in various regions. For instance, in Chicago, temperatures will rise from the mid-20s F on Thursday to the upper 30s by Sunday and then the mid-40s early next week. A similar trend is expected in New York City, where temperatures will climb from the low 20s on Saturday morning to near 50 by Tuesday afternoon.
In Oklahoma City, a remarkable temperature shift is anticipated, with temperatures rising from near zero on Wednesday to close to 70 by the middle of next week. The High Plains will experience some of the most drastic temperature swings, with Valentine, Nebraska, going from 33 below zero on Thursday morning to near 60 on Monday afternoon, a swing of 93 degrees. Similarly, large temperature fluctuations are forecasted across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
While February saw intense cold and winter storms, a new weather pattern is emerging that will allow Arctic air to retreat and reduce the frequency of storms, explained Anderson. Although there will still be some snowstorms in March, they will occur less frequently compared to the first two-thirds of February.
AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok clarified that the polar vortex, often cited by other media outlets as a major factor in the extreme cold this winter, has not significantly impacted weather patterns. Pastelok stated that while there have been minor fluctuations in the polar vortex, it has not broken loose or shifted dramatically this winter.
When the polar vortex weakens or breaks down completely, it can unleash a surge of bitterly cold air into lower atmospheric regions, affecting mid-latitudes for extended periods.
The process of bringing Arctic air southward without much assistance from the polar vortex is known as meridional flow. This phenomenon has occurred numerous times through the movement of expansive high-pressure systems that travel southward annually. High-pressure systems are essentially vast domes of air that can encompass Arctic air, temperate oceanic air, or warm tropical air. Meteorologists often analyze the origins of these high-pressure systems to gauge the potential temperature extremes that may impact a certain region when crafting a weather forecast.
“In January, there was some elongation of the polar vortex, resulting in a significant cold snap across the central and eastern United States,” noted meteorologist Pastelok. “However, more accurately, it was the distortion of the polar jet stream that facilitated the redirection of bitterly cold high-pressure systems into the U.S.”
There are indications that another instance of polar vortex elongation or a shift in the polar jet stream is likely to occur toward the end of February and into the first half of March. The forecast suggests that this event will predominantly affect eastern Canada, with some cold weather repercussions anticipated for the northeastern United States.
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