In California, during La Niña weather patterns, the southern half of the state usually experiences dry conditions, leading to increased wildfire activity and flooding in the northern half. This past winter was no exception. In early January, wildfires in the Los Angeles area destroyed over 12,000 structures, resulting in widespread devastation and loss of life. The strong Santa Ana winds worsened the situation, making firefighting efforts challenging.
While this winter’s weather pattern deviated from the norm due to a weak La Niña, the effects of climate change are likely continuing to alter the usual conditions. The predictability of La Niña events may no longer be reliable as global warming shifts climate trends.
Forecasters are uncertain about when the current weather event will end, especially as it approaches the spring predictability barrier. Climate models struggle to predict the strength and duration of El Niño and La Niña events, as seen in the persistence of last year’s El Niño well into spring and summer.
As the La Niña pattern weakens, experts are monitoring the potential future of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Possibilities range from a resurgence of La Niña to the development of an El Niño, with significant global impacts.
Neutral ENSO events are typically not associated with severe weather outbreaks. During neutral years, the U.S. experiences fewer tornadoes and hail events, staying close to historical averages. In contrast, La Niña conditions often lead to severe weather outbreaks and increased tornado activity.
Data on tornadic activity in 2025 suggests a lower number of reports compared to previous years. While it is still early in the year, the ongoing neutral conditions make predictions for the upcoming hurricane season in the Atlantic basin uncertain.
Neutral seasons can vary from relatively calm with few tropical cyclones to exceptionally active years. Research indicates that hurricanes during neutral years impact the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico similarly to La Niña events, with heightened effects along the northeastern seaboard as well.
The reduced tropical cyclone activity has been observed in some regions, while the Caribbean is facing impacts that are considered to be around average. Across the continental U.S., neutral conditions are expected to lead to warmer-than-usual air temperatures, especially during the summer months. Historically, neutral summers have been among the top half of the warmest on record, with significant heat waves affecting all three coastlines, while the central regions of the country experience more moderate air masses. Source: How La Nina impacted the topsy-turvy winter of 2024-2025
