Tracking down and confronting the militants who have established a stronghold for the Islamic State (IS) group in Africa proves to be a challenging endeavor, especially when they conceal themselves deep within the mountains of north-eastern Somalia. However, following his characteristic bold style, President Donald Trump recently authorized an airstrike in the region and boldly declared on social media, “WE WILL FIND YOU, AND WE WILL KILL YOU!”
The targeted strike, occurring less than two weeks into his term, aimed at a senior IS attack planner and other militants in Somalia’s semi-autonomous Puntland region. Trump proudly announced that the operation had obliterated the caves serving as the militants’ hideouts while ensuring minimal civilian casualties, asserting his success where his predecessor, Joe Biden, had allegedly faltered. Trump criticized Biden’s administration, claiming they were too slow to act, whereas he swiftly took decisive action.
The unexpected focus on Somalia as the site of America’s initial significant military move under the new leadership raised eyebrows among Somalis who had feared being abandoned by the US. During his first term, Trump had withdrawn approximately 700 American troops, a decision reversed by his successor. The recent multi-million-dollar deal between the Somali government and a prominent Washington lobbying firm, the BGR Group, reflected the country’s anxiety about potential shifts in US policy.
Although under Biden, US forces in Somalia had been engaged in special operations, training local forces, and conducting regular airstrikes, the future of American involvement in Somalia remains uncertain under Trump. Despite the recent airstrike’s success, it does not necessarily signal an increased military presence by the US in Somalia, as Trump’s administration had already escalated airstrikes during his initial term.
Puntland’s counter-terrorism strategy diverges from that of the central Somali government, with which it severed ties in March the previous year. Puntland emphasizes self-reliance and is less reliant on support from African Union troops and global powers such as the US and Turkey. The head of Puntland’s security co-ordination office, Mohamed Mubarak, highlights the region’s longstanding battle against IS and stresses the need for sustained international support in addressing the global threat posed by the militant group.
“In the face of international terrorism, we have been fighting IS on the ground for years, with minimal external assistance,” Mubarak asserts. “We continue to stand against IS, a problem that extends beyond our borders. While we appreciate support from Kenya, Ethiopia, and the UAE, the depth of American involvement in our efforts remains uncertain.”
Puntland’s forces have successfully seized 48 caves and IS outposts, and have eliminated numerous drones and explosive devices since initiating their comprehensive “hilaac” or “lightning” campaign last year. While IS has been present in Somalia for approximately ten years, it has historically posed a lesser threat than the militant group al-Shabab, which controls significant territories in the country and is considered to be a successful affiliate of al-Qaeda. However, IS has recently gained more prominence on local, regional, and global levels.
According to authorities in Puntland and unnamed US officials, the leader of IS-Somalia, Abdulqadir Mumin, distinguished by his orange beard and glasses, is now recognized as the head of IS worldwide. Reports initially suggested that Mumin had been killed in a US airstrike last May, but this has not been verified. Despite uncertainties surrounding Mumin’s status and leadership, IS-Somalia has emerged as a growing concern for foreign nations.
President Trump remarked, “These terrorists, whom we discovered hiding in caves, have threatened the United States and our allies.” Tricia Bacon, director of the anti-terrorism policy hub at American University in Washington DC, highlights the expanding role of IS-Somalia within the Islamic State network, particularly in Africa and beyond.
Operating as a critical hub for IS activities across the continent, IS-Somalia has become a central point for coordinating operations. Ms. Bacon warns that IS-Somalia’s ambitions extend beyond Africa, intending to support and instigate attacks in the Western world. She emphasizes the importance of international support for Puntland’s efforts against the group.
Mr. Bryden notes the concerning collaboration between IS-Somalia and Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. He mentions that like al-Shabab, IS-Somalia has received weapons and training from the Houthis, which is troubling for the US government and its allies. The group’s strength has been bolstered by an increasing number of foreign recruits, particularly Ethiopian migrants seeking better opportunities abroad.
It is estimated that IS-Somalia comprises mostly foreign fighters, with individuals hailing from North Africa, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and the Middle East. The group is believed to be around 1,000 members strong, although UN monitors estimate its size to be between 600 and 700. In recent months, IS-Somalia has demonstrated its growing capacity by launching sophisticated attacks and expanding its financial networks, with the al-Karrar office in Puntland playing a crucial role in financing and supporting the group’s operations in Africa and beyond.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has reported that IS-Somalia managed to accumulate close to $2 million in the first six months of 2022 through levies on local businesses, imports, nomads, and farmers.
For Puntland’s military forces to effectively combat and expel the militants, the strategic deployment of air support is deemed crucial.
Following a targeted US military operation, authorities in Puntland disclosed that the leader of IS-Somalia’s assassination unit, Abdirahman Shirwa Aw-Said, surrendered himself.
However, analysts caution that sustained and coordinated efforts will be necessary to root out existing IS networks in Somalia and prevent the emergence of new cells.
The question remains whether the United States, under its unpredictable leadership, is committed to a prolonged campaign of aerial bombardment in the mountainous regions of Somalia’s northeast.
Renowned author Mary Harper, known for her insightful works on Somalia, including “Everything You Have Told Me Is True,” provides a poignant glimpse into life under the shadow of al-Shabab.
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