In the whirlwind of activity during the initial days of President Donald Trump’s second administration, it can be overwhelming to keep track of everything. From Elon Musk’s involvement in DOGE to potential trade tensions with Colombia, from the sweeping pardon of Capitol rioters to the fluctuating funding situation, and the swift crackdown on immigrants entering the United States illegally, there is much to follow. Amid all these headlines, one industry quietly poised for a significant windfall under Trump’s policies is private prisons.
On his first day in office, President Trump signed a series of executive orders and actions, including the reversal of President Joe Biden’s directive for the Department of Justice to stop renewing contracts with private, for-profit prison companies housing federal crime convicts. By the end of 2022, the Bureau of Prisons had terminated all its contracts with private prisons per Biden’s order. Now, under Trump’s leadership, these contracts are set to resume. This back-and-forth is not new, as private prisons have been in a cycle of inclusion and exclusion with the DOJ for the past decade. The Obama administration initiated phasing them out, which was reversed by Trump’s first term, resumed by Biden, and now Trump has reversed it again.
Private prison companies, such as the GEO Group and CoreCivic, are anticipating a boost in business due to Trump’s plans for increased detention and deportation of immigrants. While the Bureau of Prisons had reduced its use of private facilities due to a decline in the federal inmate population, the focus is now shifting to immigration detainees. Both Democratic and Republican administrations have collaborated with for-profit prisons on immigration matters, with Trump’s administration planning a substantial escalation in detentions and deportations, signaling significant opportunities for these companies.
Although the benefits for private prison companies may have gone unnoticed by the general public, Wall Street has taken notice. The stock prices of GEO and CoreCivic have surged since the 2024 election, driven by expectations of increased deportations under Trump’s immigration policies. This industry may prove to be a lucrative asset for the president’s immigration agenda, promising substantial profits for private prison operators.
Bianca Tylek, founder and executive director of Worth Rises, a group advocating against the commercialization of the criminal legal system, explained how there are three main ways to profit from Trump’s deportation plans. The first is detaining migrants in facilities, whether for court hearings or eventual expulsion. The second involves surveillance of migrants who are not detained, while the third relates to transporting migrants within or out of the US.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement currently has funding for 41,500 detention beds, but there are plans to increase this number significantly to support Trump’s deportation initiatives. Private prison operators, such as GEO and CoreCivic, are expected to play a crucial role in this expansion, with GEO already positioned to increase its capacity to over 31,000 beds and CoreCivic aiming to reopen closed facilities to reach 25,000 beds.
GEO also runs ICE’s Intensive Supervision Appearance Program, which monitors migrants during legal proceedings as an alternative to detention. The company believes it can scale this program to accommodate hundreds of thousands, potentially even millions of participants. With approximately 11 million undocumented individuals in the US, the government’s increased monitoring efforts would greatly benefit private prison companies like GEO and CoreCivic.
On the transportation front, private prison companies have contracts with ICE to move migrants on the ground and by air. For example, GEO expects its air subcontracting services to bring in $25 million in annualized revenue and is prepared to scale up as needed. Both GEO and CoreCivic are investing in infrastructure and services to align with the anticipated demands of the federal government’s immigration enforcement priorities.
Private prison companies have strategically positioned themselves for these opportunities through lobbying efforts, campaign donations, and building relationships with public officials, particularly within the Trump administration. Their proactive engagement with political decision-makers has paved the way for their involvement in the implementation of Trump’s immigration policies.
In the 2016 election, GEO contributed $225,000 to the pro-Trump super PAC Rebuilding America Now through a subsidiary. A complaint filed by the Campaign Legal Center with the Federal Election Commission, alleging that this violated a ban on political contributions by federal contractors, was dismissed due to a deadlock on the FEC. Both GEO and CoreCivic also donated $250,000 each to Trump’s 2016 inauguration. In 2017, GEO held its annual conference at the Trump National Doral Golf Club in Miami, and a GEO executive who lobbied the Trump administration stayed at Trump’s hotel in Washington, DC. Pam Bondi, Trump’s attorney general at the time, had lobbied for GEO as recently as 2019.
In early 2024, GEO reached the maximum donation limit to Trump’s campaign and gave significant amounts to the Trump-affiliated super PAC Make America Great Again Inc. Individual executives at GEO and CoreCivic have also made substantial donations to Trump and related PACs. Private prison companies, including GEO and CoreCivic, donated over $1 million to Trump’s reelection campaign, hoping for favorable outcomes.
Setareh Ghandehari, advocacy director at the Detention Watch Network, expressed concerns about the potential increase in demand for private prison services post-election. She noted that while companies may be enthusiastic about profit opportunities, expanding detention capacity would require time and resources.
Trump’s immigration plans are anticipated to require substantial funding, potentially impacting taxpayers. Companies like GEO and CoreCivic aim to benefit from government contracts but face uncertainties regarding funding sources. Implementing Trump’s proposals may involve reallocating resources within the Department of Homeland Security and seeking additional congressional appropriations.
Former ICE director PJ Lechleitner emphasized the challenges of rapidly expanding detention capacity and highlighted the need for substantial investments and infrastructure development. The administration’s ambitious targets may necessitate years of planning and funding allocation.
The possibility of utilizing “catch and release” practices due to facility construction timelines could benefit private prison companies by facilitating migrant monitoring. Despite differing views on immigration policies, the complexities of detention operations and funding allocation remain key considerations in the ongoing discussions surrounding immigration enforcement.
Engaging in commercial endeavors can be challenging. The priority of maximizing shareholder value may not always align with the best interests of the community, the country, or public safety. The volatile nature of private prison stocks, influenced by political affiliations, adds to this discomfort. Private prison companies saw their stocks plummet in 2016 following a strong debate performance by Hillary Clinton, highlighting the industry’s sensitivity to political shifts. Despite this, these companies have thrived under various administrations, with both Democrats and Republicans utilizing their services for immigration-related purposes.
Matt Nelson, the executive director of Presente, a civil and human rights organization, noted that while the Obama and Biden administrations imposed some restrictions on private prisons, they failed to address the significant role these companies play in immigration and ICE operations. Despite Trump’s actions, which did not significantly reverse these trends, private prison companies like GEO and CoreCivic are poised to benefit from lucrative opportunities. Although not prominently seated at Trump’s inauguration, their influence remains strong, operating discreetly to achieve their objectives with the support of the administration.
As companies navigate this landscape, the symbiotic relationship between them and political figures is evident. Emily Stewart, a senior correspondent at Business Insider, explores the dynamics of business and the economy in her reporting.
