Negotiators are getting closer to a potential agreement to address a major issue regarding Syria’s future: the status of Kurdish forces. The U.S. sees them as crucial allies against ISIS, but Turkey perceives them as a security threat. Diplomatic and military officials from the U.S., Turkey, Syria, and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are displaying more flexibility and patience in discussions. This could pave the way for a deal in the near future, possibly involving some Kurdish fighters leaving northeast Syria and others falling under the new defense ministry. However, numerous complex issues need resolution, such as integrating SDF fighters into Syria’s security framework and managing territory they control, including vital oil and wheat fields.
SDF commander Mazloum Abdi has expressed the alliance’s desire for decentralized administration, contrasting with Syria’s aim of centralizing control. The SDF is willing to cooperate with the defense ministry but wishes to remain a distinct military entity. Syria’s new defense minister has rejected this idea, preferring all armed groups to merge under a unified command.
The level of autonomy for Kurdish factions may depend on President Trump’s policy towards Kurdish allies and the 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria. The possibility of a deal also hinges on whether Turkish President Erdogan refrains from launching a military operation against the YPG, a Kurdish militia within the SDF that Turkey considers linked to a terrorist group.
Turkish officials emphasize the importance of disarming armed groups and removing foreign fighters for Syria’s stability and territorial integrity. They are pressing this demand in discussions with the U.S. and the new Syrian administration.
Intensive negotiations have been ongoing between U.S. and Turkish officials following a swift offensive by rebels associated with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that resulted in the overthrow of Assad on December 8, as reported by a senior U.S. diplomat to Reuters. Both countries share a common goal of removing all foreign fighters from Syrian territory and are working towards a resolution with a sense of urgency, although the complexity of the discussions is acknowledged and it will require time to reach an agreement.
Multiple discussions are occurring simultaneously between the U.S. and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Turkey and HTS, as well as the SDF and HTS. The Syrian Kurds, who have gained control over Arab-majority areas with U.S. support during the conflict against the Islamic State, are now facing challenges with Assad’s downfall, leading to increased influence from Turkey-backed groups in the northeast.
Turkey has become a significant player in post-Assad Syria, having supported rebel factions and designating HTS as a terrorist organization due to its ties with al Qaeda. Concerns are raised by all parties about the potential consequences of failing to establish a ceasefire and a long-term political agreement in the northeast, especially considering the country’s efforts to recover from a prolonged civil war that involved multiple external actors.
Tensions have arisen between the U.S. and Turkey over the support provided to the SDF, which Washington sees as crucial for countering the Islamic State. Turkey aims to manage camps and prisons holding Islamic State detainees under Syria’s new leadership while demanding the expulsion of foreign fighters and senior PKK members from SDF-controlled areas. The PKK has indicated willingness to leave if certain conditions are met, including a ceasefire agreement with Turkey.
Efforts to resolve the situation are crucial to prevent further destabilization in Syria and the wider region, as emphasized by the United Nations. Trade-offs and compromises are being explored as both U.S. and Turkish interests intersect in finding a sustainable solution to the complex dynamics at play in post-conflict Syria.
In the complex geopolitical landscape of northeastern Syria, the Democratic Forces (DF) are maintaining their stronghold, playing a significant role in joint leadership. However, their control is being questioned and challenged by various regional players, particularly Ankara.
Ankara, the capital of Turkey, remains skeptical and unsatisfied with the DF’s assurances, especially as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) strive to maintain their autonomy and survival in the war-torn region. Omer Onhon, Turkey’s former ambassador to Damascus, emphasized Ankara’s concerns in a recent statement to Reuters, highlighting the delicate balance of power in the area.
During a diplomatic exchange in Ankara, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani expressed discontent with the extensive presence of the U.S.-backed SDF, stating that it was no longer justifiable. He asserted that the new administration would prioritize preventing Syrian territory from being used as a threat against Turkey. This sentiment was echoed by his Turkish counterpart, Fidan, who emphasized the importance of implementing anti-terrorism measures.
In a significant development, Abdi, a key figure within the SDF, disclosed that discussions had taken place with Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, regarding the integration of SDF forces with the defense ministry. The establishment of a joint military committee was proposed to navigate this process. Abdi portrayed the meeting with Sharaa, who leads HTS, as constructive and forward-looking.
On the other hand, tensions escalated as Abu Qasra, the defense minister, accused SDF leaders of stalling progress on critical issues related to territorial consolidation under the new administration. The Syrian state’s prerogative to assert control and maintain unity was underscored as a fundamental right by Qasra.
A ministry official voiced concerns that allowing the SDF to operate independently posed risks of destabilization, potentially leading to a coup. Abdi countered these claims by advocating for a decentralized administrative approach that would not compromise Syria’s unity, drawing a distinction from the federalist model seen in Iraq.
However, the path to a political settlement necessitates compromises from the SDF, including relinquishing control of territories and oil revenues acquired during the conflict. Bassam al-Kuwatli, president of the Syrian Liberal Party, highlighted the potential for Kurdish factions to receive protections for their cultural and linguistic heritage within a decentralized political framework.
As discussions unfold, a senior Syrian Kurdish source hinted at the likelihood of trade-offs in order to reach a consensus, though specifics were not provided. Abdi indicated the SDF’s willingness to transfer responsibility for oil resources to the new administration, emphasizing the importance of equitable distribution among all regions.
Amidst these deliberations, the United States has advocated for a managed transition of the SDF’s role, signaling a potential shift in its military presence in Syria post-Assad’s removal. The engagement of trusted allies, particularly Kurdish forces, remains integral to countering any resurgence of the Islamic State.
The return of former President Trump to the political
