Investigation is underway into potential sabotage after two underwater cables were cut in the Baltic Sea. Repair work has started on one of the cables, with Finnish authorities collecting forensic samples as part of the inquiry. Eight sailors remain under a travel ban as the investigation continues.
NATO has accused Moscow of using tankers and other vessels to bypass international sanctions on its fossil fuel exports following the Kremlin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The “shadow fleet” described by the Atlantic Council consists of aging vessels sailing without Western insurance, under opaque ownership, and with frequent name and nationality changes. Some of these ships are believed to be involved in low-tech sabotage activities.
Reports suggest that Russia’s shadow fleet could include up to 1,400 ships, with a significant number involved in transporting Russian crude oil. Efforts to counter potential threats from this fleet led the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force and other Baltic states to implement an AI-assisted system for monitoring undersea infrastructure.
A meeting of NATO’s Baltic states in Helsinki is planned to discuss securing critical underwater infrastructure and addressing the threat posed by Russia’s shadow fleet. However, monitoring the vast expanse of the Baltic Sea, traversed by thousands of ships daily, presents a significant challenge.
Tracking these vessels is complicated by the complex ownership structures prevalent in the global commercial shipping sector. Identifying the origin of a ship’s activities, particularly when it has multiple owners from different countries, can be challenging.
The relatively shallow depth of the Baltic Sea makes it easier to access cables and pipelines compared to deeper seas like the North Sea or the Mediterranean. This accessibility could make the Baltic Sea a target for sabotage attempts due to its shallowness, in contrast to more challenging environments like the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans.
Kaushal explained that specialized equipment is needed to target undersea infrastructure, while simpler tools like dragging an anchor can be used in the Baltic region. NATO is focusing on guarding specific sites rather than monitoring all potential saboteurs. For instance, after the damage to Estlink 2, Estonia deployed naval vessels to protect Estlink 1. The Bold Machina 2024 naval exercise in Italy involved testing underwater sensors by special forces divers to protect underwater infrastructure in the future. Kaushal emphasized the importance of narrowing the focus to critical infrastructure rather than wide area surveillance. However, NATO ships have limitations in taking action to prevent damage due to international freedom of navigation constraints. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea allows challenging freedom of navigation if it threatens coastal states’ peace, order, or security. While historic agreements like the 1884 Convention for the Protection of Submarine Telegraph Cables could provide some legal basis to act against suspicious vessels, interfering with civilian shipping could have unintended consequences. Kaushal noted that nations have been hesitant to take more assertive actions in such situations. December’s alleged attack is the latest in a series of suspected sabotage incidents in the Baltic, including damage to submarine cables connecting various countries in the region. In response to these incidents, authorities have suspected vessels like the Chinese-flagged Yi Peng 3 and the Hong Kong-flagged Newnew Polar Bear of causing damage to underwater infrastructure. Investigations have revealed the involvement of these vessels in damaging undersea cables and pipelines. The Chinese government attributed the damage caused by the Newnew Polar Bear to a storm in August.
Before ships began damaging cables in the Baltic region, the strategic sea – known as the “NATO lake” by some allied leaders following the accession of Sweden and Finland to the alliance – was the site of covert operations apparently linked to Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. In September 2022, the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which transport natural gas from Russia to Germany, were targeted in a bombing incident, marking a significant act of alleged sabotage in the Baltic Sea since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. These pipelines had faced strong criticism from North American and European critics skeptical of Berlin’s ties to Moscow, especially leaders in Ukraine and the Baltic region who viewed the pipelines as part of Russian hybrid warfare tactics. The perpetrators of the pipeline sabotage remain unidentified, though unconfirmed reports have pointed fingers at Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine, all of whom have denied any involvement. The Baltic Sea has thus become a key battleground in the broader conflict between Russia and the West.
A photo taken in 2024 off Porkkalanniemi, Finland, depicts the tanker Eagle S, accompanied by the Finnish border guard ship Uisko and the tugboat Ukko. The potential benefit for Russia in the Baltic Sea is evident – with a small number of tankers, Moscow can compel its NATO adversaries to allocate significant resources to safeguarding underwater infrastructure. The relative accessibility of the Baltic Sea and the energy needs of regional countries could magnify the impact of any sabotage. Energy insecurity, exacerbated by gas disruptions, has been a major concern impacting Europe’s response to Russia’s actions. Moscow has sought to exploit this vulnerability but may face challenges in the Baltic’s waters, where its actions could trigger escalations and provoke responses from NATO nations.
If it can be proven that vessels violating sanctions are involved in sabotage, these rogue elements may face retaliation. However, such actions could lead to further escalation, potentially prompting Russia to deploy military escorts for tankers passing through the Baltic Sea. The introduction of a more militarized approach could unsettle non-Russian crew members on these vessels and may not be a straightforward maneuver for Russia’s Baltic Fleet. The willingness of crew members to accept the risks associated with such operations, even with Russian escorts, remains a critical factor in how events unfold in the region.
Contributions to this report were made by ABC News’ Zoe Magee and Ellie Kaufman. The sabotage in the Baltic Sea sets the stage for a growing contest between NATO and Russia.
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