Reported by Ellen Zhang, Joe Cash, and Ethan Wang in Beijing, China’s exports accelerated in December, while imports rebounded, concluding the year on a positive note amid escalating trade risks with the incoming U.S. administration. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who is poised to take office next week, has proposed significant tariffs on Chinese goods, sparking concerns of a potential trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Additionally, unresolved disputes with the European Union regarding tariffs of up to 45.3% on Chinese electric vehicles could impede China’s efforts to expand its auto exports.
“Trade frontloading became more prominent in December due to both Chinese New Year effects and Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration,” stated Xu Tianchen, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. The Chinese New Year festival is scheduled to take place from January 28 to February 4 this year. Xu also noted, “Import growth may be supported by the accumulation of commodities like copper and iron ore as part of China’s ‘buy low’ strategy.”
According to customs data released on Monday, outbound shipments in December surged by 10.7% year-on-year, surpassing the 7.3% growth predicted in a Reuters poll of economists and improving from November’s 6.7% rise. Imports outperformed expectations with a 1.0% growth rate, the most robust performance since July 2024. Economists had anticipated a 1.5% decline. China’s trade surplus expanded to $104.8 billion last month, up from $97.4 billion in November.
A spokesperson from the Chinese customs authority highlighted that there is still “significant” potential for the $18 trillion economy’s imports to increase this year. The momentum in exports has been a crucial factor driving China’s economy, which continues to grapple with a prolonged downturn in the property market and fragile consumer confidence.
Despite ongoing challenges, there are signs of stabilization following China’s recent stimulus measures. Official surveys revealed that factory activity sustained modest growth for the third consecutive month, while the services and construction sectors showed signs of recovery in December.
South Korea, a key barometer of China’s imports, reported an 8.6% surge in shipments to China in December, indicating resilience in the demand for technology products. China’s iron ore imports in 2024 climbed for a second consecutive year to reach a new peak, as lower prices spurred purchases and demand remained strong despite the persistent property crisis weighing on steel demand.
The world’s largest agricultural importer also recorded a record volume of soybean purchases last year as buyers sought to secure U.S. soybeans in anticipation of potential trade tensions with the incoming U.S. administration. However, crude oil imports declined last year, marking the first annual drop in two decades outside of pandemic-induced decreases, as subdued economic growth and plateauing fuel consumption dampened purchases.
Chinese leaders have committed to loosening monetary policy and implementing a more proactive fiscal approach in 2025 to
