The ousting of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad presents a rare chance to reshape the power dynamics in the Middle East. Rather than relying on bombs, American policymakers can leverage commerce to rebalance the situation. It is crucial for Washington to devise a strategy that paves the way for future U.S. investments to stabilize Syria and prevent Russia from regaining influence. By collaborating strategically with American businesses and allies, the U.S. can counter Russian interference in Syria and thwart Vladimir Putin’s expansionist ambitions across the Middle East, Europe, and Africa.
Taking action promptly is imperative. Although Russia’s position in Syria has weakened, it is likely to intensify efforts to solidify its presence in the country. As a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council and a key player in post-Assad transition discussions, Russia holds significant diplomatic sway. Moreover, Russia still maintains military bases in Syria. The current de facto leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has emphasized the profound strategic ties between Russia and Syria.
Russia is expected to leverage its economic connections to bolster its position in Syria. Following its military intervention in 2015, Russian companies, including the paramilitary group Wagner (now known as AfricaCorp), secured access to Syria’s resources such as energy, phosphates, and telecommunications. Russia faces substantial financial losses in Syria, including investments and loans to the Assad regime.
An effective American response to counter Russia should begin with imposing sanctions. Washington has already imposed a range of sanctions on the Assad regime, and lifting them entirely will be a gradual process. Discussions are ongoing to issue waivers and licenses to stimulate economic growth and foreign investment in Syria. The Treasury Department recently provided additional sanctions relief on January 6. Early waivers for humanitarian purposes should be carefully managed to prevent Russia from exploiting loopholes in the sanctions regime, such as through the use of shell companies.
In addition to sanctions, the U.S. should proactively engage in rebuilding Syria by empowering allies like Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky has shown willingness to contribute to the reconstruction efforts. While upholding the existing sanctions framework, the U.S. can assist Ukrainian and other partners in identifying their needs to operate in Syria independently and counter Russia’s influence.
Russia has historically been a major supplier of wheat to Syria, much of which was obtained from Ukraine. With Assad’s downfall, Russian wheat exports to Syria have been halted. The U.S., in collaboration with American companies, should facilitate the delivery of Ukrainian wheat to Syria and explore expanding commercial opportunities, such as in telecommunications, to diminish Russia’s presence.
Furthermore, a comprehensive public messaging campaign, possibly with private sector support, can spotlight the contributions of the U.S. and its partners in aiding Syria. Previously, humanitarian aid was often discreetly provided due to concerns about Assad’s retaliation. It is crucial to ensure that efforts to assist Syria are recognized and appreciated.
Assisting Syria will undoubtedly pose significant challenges, but the U.S. has been a leading provider of humanitarian aid
Over the years, the United States has provided over $17 billion in humanitarian relief to Syria since 2011. As aid has successfully reached Syria even with Assad in power, there is optimism that more can be done now with Assad gone and with Russia and Iran’s influence waning. Russian officials frequently travel to foreign nations with business delegations, recognizing the significance of economic ties in global politics. The U.S. has the potential to outmaneuver Putin in this arena, with American credibility at stake.
American policymakers have stressed the importance of not allowing Russia to benefit from the atrocities committed by Assad in Syria. Russian officials have hypocritically expressed concern for the humanitarian crisis in Syria while supporting Assad’s brutal attacks on civilians. This pattern of behavior has extended into Russia’s actions in Ukraine, where Moscow continues to engage in aggressive behavior on a larger scale. This trend will persist unless the consequences for Russia become severe enough.
Russia is banking on the assumption that the U.S. will disengage from the Middle East, and it would be a blow to U.S. standing globally if Moscow’s gamble proves correct. If Russia solidifies its economic presence in Syria, it could funnel the profits into sustaining its military operations in Ukraine, thereby increasing the costs for Western nations that support Ukraine. Additionally, Russia could leverage its foothold in Syria to expand its influence across the region.
Putin’s agenda is not peace but chaos, as evidenced by Russia’s disruptive actions in global trade and its destabilizing impact on economies and governments to bolster its own power. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia marked the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II, dispelling any notion that the conflict is isolated. While the Syrian people are ultimately responsible for shaping their own future, the backing of a global economic powerhouse like the U.S. would undoubtedly enhance the stability of that future.
The U.S. has a unique opportunity to reclaim its influence in the Middle East by countering Moscow’s efforts to position itself as a dominant force in shaping a new world order. Allowing Russia to establish supremacy in Syria would only perpetuate disorder and conflict. Anna Borshchevskaya, the Harold Grinspoon Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute and author of “Putin’s War in Syria: Russian Foreign Policy and the Price of America’s Absence,” highlights the importance of these geopolitical dynamics.
