While 2024 marks the first calendar year to exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold, previous instances of surpassing this mark include the 12-month global average temperature between February 2023 and January 2024, as well as the monthly global average temperature in February 2016. This breach of the 1.5℃ threshold over several months or even a few years does not indicate a failure to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal, as the agreement assesses global temperature averages over multiple decades before drawing conclusions.
Climate experts emphasize that short-term breaches, such as the one observed in 2024, serve as a crucial warning sign that unprecedented temperatures are likely to persist in the coming decades unless global emissions are reduced. The Copernicus Climate Change Service director, Carlo Buontempo, highlights that all globally produced temperature datasets confirm that 2024 was the warmest year on record since 1850. He emphasizes the importance of evidence-based responses to the climate crisis, as humanity holds the power to shape its future through swift and resolute action.
The recent surge in global temperatures has been primarily attributed to the El Niño event in the equatorial eastern Pacific since last summer. While El Niño periods typically coincide with record high global temperatures, it is essential to note that the 2024 warming spike resulted from the overlay of a short-term El Niño event on the ongoing long-term global warming trend fueled by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. This acceleration of global warming is evident throughout El Niño and non-El Niño seasons.
Copernicus data reflects that 2024 witnessed the highest annual levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere ever recorded, underscoring the significant role of human activities in driving climate change. The steady increase in greenhouse gas emissions, alongside the El Niño event, contributed to the record temperatures observed in 2024. While regulations have successfully reduced air pollution in recent years, notably through the substantial decrease in sulfur dioxide emissions, this progress has inadvertently minimized the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. Aerosols, which can reflect sunlight and lower global temperatures, have decreased significantly due to these pollution control measures.
In summary, while the Earth experienced record temperatures in 2024, driven by a combination of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, El Niño events, and reduced aerosol concentrations, the findings underscore the urgency for concerted global efforts to combat climate change and mitigate its impacts.
The reduction of atmospheric aerosols leads to cleaner air but also allows more sunlight to reach the Earth’s surface, causing a heating effect. Some studies suggest that this phenomenon may have contributed to recent warm temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate experts believe that the January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Volcano could be influencing the warming trend. Unlike typical volcanic eruptions that cool the Earth by emitting sulfur dioxide, which forms sunlight-reflecting aerosols, this specific eruption released a significant amount of water vapor, a potent greenhouse gas that traps heat in the atmosphere.
A study in the Journal of Climate found that the volcano’s effects could lead to temperature increases of over 1.5°C in some regions and decreases of around 1°C in others. However, conflicting conclusions have been drawn by other studies. Research in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere in July 2024 suggested that the majority of the volcano’s impacts had dissipated by the end of 2023. Discrepancies in the conclusions are thought to be due to variations in the atmospheric aerosol data used in the calculations.
Observations by Copernicus indicate a record-high amount of water vapor in the atmosphere in 2024. Climate scientists emphasize that as long as significant amounts of fossil fuels are burned, global temperatures will continue to rise. Andrew Dessler, a professor at Texas A&M specializing in atmospheric sciences, emphasizes the predictable nature of temperature increases and reiterates that each year will likely be among the hottest on record.
Despite high expectations following the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2016, progress has been slow in reducing fossil fuel usage. Recent reports by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization indicate that greenhouse gas concentrations, particularly carbon dioxide, have been steadily rising, surpassing previous records. The world is facing a looming climate crisis due to insufficient action in meeting the commitments outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement.
Column-averaged concentrations of H4 (on the right), based on satellite data from 2003 to 2024 (represented by a dotted line) alongside a 12-month average (shown by a solid line) as reported by C3S/CAMS/ECMWF/University of Bremen/SRO.
In 2024, carbon emissions from fossil fuels reached a new peak, coinciding with record-breaking U.S. crude oil production in August of that year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The Global Carbon Project noted this concerning trend.
Climate researchers at Climate Action Tracker highlighted a concerning observation: efforts to combat climate change have stalled since 2021. This lack of decisive action from global leaders is allowing the impacts of unprecedented warming to grow, taking a toll on lives and property.
The Earth’s temperature continues to set alarming records, with daily global temperature highs reported by Copernicus for the second consecutive day. The financial toll of climate-related disasters was significant last year, with 24 such events in the U.S. causing over $1 billion in damages, and tragically resulting in at least 418 fatalities.
While natural disasters such as severe storms, hurricanes, and wildfires have always existed, the intensification and increased frequency of these events are linked to human-induced climate change, as affirmed by NASA, NOAA, the United Nations Environment Programme, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
A recent study by Climate Central emphasized the impact of human-induced climate change on hurricane intensity, attributing the increased maximum wind speeds of Atlantic hurricanes in 2024 to elevated ocean temperatures caused by climate change. Notably, hurricanes Beryl and Milton would likely not have reached Category 5 status without this influence.
Beyond the immediate destruction caused by hurricanes and wildfires, extreme heat poses a substantial risk in the United States, with children and the elderly being particularly vulnerable to heat-related illnesses and fatalities. Studies have shown a significant increase in heat-related deaths, with a notable rise in heat-related mortality rates between 1999 and 2023.
Moreover, extreme heat adversely impacts children’s health, development, behavior, and learning abilities. Research indicates that even a slight rise in temperature can lead to reduced learning outcomes in school-aged children.
The warming of global sea temperatures has triggered the largest coral bleaching event on record, affecting nearly 77% of coral reef areas. Scientists warn that unmitigated climate change poses a severe threat to biodiversity, with approximately one-third of the world’s species facing the risk of extinction due to changing environmental conditions.
These developments underscore the urgent need for concerted global action to address the escalating impacts of climate change and protect the planet’s ecosystems and inhabitants.
The world is already at risk due to changes in our climate. In a report by Copernicus, it was disclosed that 2023 has officially been declared the hottest year on record, bringing global temperatures closer to the warming limit.
Despite the alarming statistics, there are reasons to be hopeful. ABC News Chief Meteorologist and Chief Climate Correspondent Ginger Zee emphasized the significance of even small differences in temperature, stating, “1.5 degrees is bad, but it’s better than 1.6, which is better than 1.7.” She highlighted that each incremental degree of warming results in more severe consequences, particularly for the most vulnerable populations. Zee also stressed that there is still an opportunity to slow down or halt the warming trend by ceasing the burning of fossil fuels and reducing consumption.
Although the world has not yet reached its peak fossil fuel consumption, there is a promising surge in renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), renewable capacity increased by 50% in 2023 compared to the previous year, with projections indicating that the next five years will witness accelerated growth in clean energy initiatives.
At the COP29 UN climate conference, global leaders, while falling short of desired targets, unanimously agreed to raise contributions to developing nations grappling with climate change impacts to $300 billion annually by 2035, tripling the previous commitment of $100 billion.
Efforts to combat climate change are also underway in the private sector, with companies worldwide exploring ways to capture and store carbon dioxide emissions. While carbon capture and storage technologies are still in their nascent stages and have yet to significantly impact greenhouse gas reduction, substantial investments are being made in these endeavors.
Furthermore, there is a burgeoning landscape of green technology companies across the globe dedicated to innovation in sustainable energy solutions. These companies are engaged in diverse projects ranging from clean fusion energy development to harnessing wave power for electricity generation to enhancing the efficiency of electric vehicle batteries.
The scientific community reacted with astonishment to the unprecedented warmth experienced in 2023, with subsequent years proving to be even hotter. This underscores the urgent need for concerted global action to address the escalating climate crisis.
In conclusion, while the challenges posed by climate change are daunting, there is a glimmer of hope in the progress being made towards a more sustainable and environmentally conscious future. It is imperative for governments, industries, and individuals to collaborate on comprehensive strategies that prioritize the health of our planet and the well-being of current and future generations.
