By Anjana Anil and Ashitha Shivaprasad (Reuters) – Antimony prices are poised to reach unprecedented levels as consumers scramble for alternative sources following China’s recent export prohibition, a move exacerbated by escalating trade tensions reshaping the landscape of critical materials markets. In a significant development last month, China imposed a ban on exporting vital minerals – gallium, germanium, and antimony – to the United States. The price of antimony, a key component in semiconductors and military applications, has surged to record highs, currently trading between $39,500 and $40,000 per metric ton in Rotterdam as of Dec. 31. This represents a staggering 250% increase in prices throughout 2024.
Market analysts anticipate further price hikes, with expectations that prices will breach the $40,000 per ton mark in the wake of China’s export ban amidst an ongoing global supply shortage. A minor metals trader in Europe revealed, “We have already sold some small quantities for $40,000,” highlighting that non-Chinese sellers are likely to increase prices to optimize profits. In 2021, China accounted for nearly half of the global antimony supply, estimated at 83,000 tons, according to data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).
Traders suggest that China’s export bans align with a strategic directive to consolidate mineral production internally. Ellie Saklatvala, the head of non-ferrous metals pricing at Argus, noted that the United States has taken steps to diversify its supply chains away from China, particularly by increasing purchases from Southeast Asia. However, the immediate challenge lies in how the U.S. will bridge the gap left by China’s export restrictions. China also prohibited the export of gallium and germanium to the United States, but the impact is expected to be minimal as the U.S. has already ceased sourcing these critical minerals from China.
Theo D. Ruas, Global Sales Manager of Metals & Compounds at Indium Corporation, emphasized the role of human behavior in market dynamics, stating, “Still markets are made of people and not only of fundamentals, therefore some bullish pressure is expected as traders exploit the ban to move prices up.” Ruas underscored the significance of additional supply sources outside China, emphasizing the need for the U.S. government to prioritize self-sufficiency in the short term. The dominance of China in critical minerals has raised concerns regarding potential future export restrictions on other metals, with speculations that Bismuth and Manganese could be targeted in the next round of export curbs.
In summary, the unprecedented surge in antimony prices following China’s export ban underscores the intricate interplay between market forces and geopolitical factors. The repercussions of China’s strategic decisions are reverberating globally, prompting stakeholders to reassess their supply chains and seek alternative sources for critical materials. As countries navigate these evolving dynamics, the imperative of securing diversified and reliable supply channels remains paramount in ensuring stability
