Early signs indicate that the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season may be slightly more active than usual. While it is projected to be a bit busier than the 30-year average, it is anticipated to be somewhat quieter compared to the 2024 season, which saw hurricanes Helene and Milton causing significant impacts in Florida and the Appalachians.
Initial Forecast: The tropical meteorology project team at Colorado State University is predicting 17 storms for the 2025 season, with nine of them likely to develop into hurricanes and four potentially reaching Category 3 status or higher. This forecast is slightly above the average for both storms and hurricanes over the past three decades, and it closely aligns with the numbers from the 2024 season, which recorded 18 storms, 11 hurricanes, and five Category 3 or stronger hurricanes.
Absence of El Niño, Potential for La Niña: The absence of El Niño conditions, which typically suppress hurricane activity, is expected throughout the upcoming season. Additionally, there is a moderate possibility of La Niña conditions occurring during the peak of hurricane season (August through October), based on the latest forecasts from NOAA. This could contribute to the slightly heightened hurricane activity projected for this season.
The contrast between El Niño and La Niña is a key factor influencing hurricane season activity. Generally, La Niña seasons in the Atlantic tend to have less wind shear, which can help storms develop, as well as more conducive conditions for thunderstorms, the precursors to tropical storms and hurricanes. If La Niña conditions materialize, they could lead to an increase in the number of storms and hurricanes.
Warm Water Temperatures, with Variability: While water temperatures in the Gulf and Caribbean are slightly above average, they are cooler compared to this time last year. These regions, along with the subtropical Atlantic, are likely to see early-season activity.
Notably, water temperatures in the eastern Atlantic, including parts of the Main Development Region (MDR), are closer to average or slightly cooler, significantly cooler than the previous year. The MDR is a critical area for hurricanes that pose risks to the U.S. and Caribbean during the peak of the season. If these cooler water conditions persist in the coming months, it could impede tropical development in that region.
Jonathan Belles, a seasoned graphics meteorologist and writer at weather.com, has been providing weather updates for eight years and contributes to video production at The Weather Channel en español. Specializing in tropical weather, he also covers high-impact weather events, news stories, and winter storms. Belles is a double graduate of Florida State University and St. Petersburg College.
