The National Hurricane Center has announced several updates to their products in preparation for the upcoming hurricane season, set to begin in a little over 80 days. Here are some key changes to look out for:
1. Earlier Warnings for Potential Tropical Activity: Starting this year, advisories may be issued up to 72 hours in advance of a system with tropical-storm-force winds or storm surge expected to approach land, regardless of whether watches for tropical storms, hurricanes, or storm surges have been issued. Previously, advisories were given no more than 48 hours before hazardous wind or water hazards were expected. This adjustment may result in a wider coverage of areas under the cone of uncertainty for an extended period. These advisories fall under the category of “Potential Tropical Cyclones,” denoting systems that are forecasted to be hazardous but do not yet meet the criteria for a tropical depression or storm.
2. Narrower Cone of Uncertainty: Following the National Hurricane Center’s exceptional track forecast performance last year, the cone of uncertainty will undergo a significant reduction in size for the upcoming season. This annual adjustment is based on historical track error data from previous hurricane seasons. The majority of the rings making up the cone will be between 2% and 6% smaller this year, with even more substantial improvements in the eastern Pacific Basin. For example, the forecasted center location of a tropical storm or hurricane in five days will now be predicted within a radius of 213 miles, a reduction from 220 miles in the previous year. This signifies a significant improvement compared to the cone’s dimensions in 2003 when it was first expanded to five days.
3. New Names for the Season: In light of the devastating impact of Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas in 2019, the name “Dorian” has been retired from future use. The replacement name, “Dexter,” will take its place in the naming rotation. Names for tropical cyclones are cycled every six years, with the latest batch last appearing in 2019, 2013, and 2007. Some names, like “Erin” and “Imelda,” have been associated with specific weather events in the past.
These changes aim to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of hurricane forecasting and preparedness efforts for the upcoming season.
Fernand: fair-nahn (no “d”)
Humberto: oom-byair-toh (no “h”)
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Other Updates:
– New rip current maps: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now offers a national rip current forecast when there’s an active tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic basin or near Southern California. Roughly one in six people in the U.S. who died directly from tropical storms or hurricanes in the last decade was a victim of a rip current or rough surf.
– Storm surge forecasts for Hawaii: Probabilistic storm surge forecasts for Hawaii’s main islands (Kauai, Maui, Oahu, and the Big Island) will now be available up to 72 hours before expected hurricane impacts.
– Cone graphics warnings: National Hurricane Center graphics will highlight the extended threats beyond the cone of uncertainty by overlaying wind alerts.
– Enhanced computer modeling: NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) will undergo further upgrades this season to improve tracking capabilities, building on successes from the previous year.
– About Jonathan Belles: Jonathan has been a graphics meteorologist and writer for weather.com for 8 years. He also contributes to video production for The Weather Channel en español. Jonathan is passionate about tropical weather, high-impact weather events, news stories, and winter storms. He is a two-time graduate of Florida State University and St. Petersburg College.
