The FOX Forecast Center is closely monitoring the Caribbean Sea in the latter half of May for any potential early signs of development before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1st. Computer models are indicating the possibility of a broad area of low pressure forming near Central America by the end of next week and into the following weekend. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross notes that various forecasts predict the development of a large low-pressure system stretching from the Pacific Ocean through Central America to Colombia.
This potential tropical threat could be associated with the Central American Gyre, a weather phenomenon known for historically contributing to the formation of tropical storms in the Caribbean or the Gulf during late spring or early fall. The gyre, characterized by a vast area of low pressure drawing moisture from the Pacific, typically results in heavy rainfall, flooding, and landslides affecting multiple countries in and around Central America.
In rare instances, organized low-pressure centers can emerge within the gyre if conditions like warm water temperatures and favorable upper-level winds support tropical development. The period between May 15th and 26th is highlighted for possible tropical activity, as disturbances may break away from Central America and evolve into tropical depressions or storms in regions such as the Eastern Pacific, Bay of Campeche, or western Caribbean Sea.
While there is a low probability of any system moving north or northeastward into the southern Gulf as a tropical depression or storm, Norcross advises caution against relying solely on outlier forecasts like the GFS model, which occasionally predicts overly ambitious developments. It’s important to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season, given that tropical cyclones can sometimes form before the official start date, with the western Caribbean Sea, the Gulf, and the southeastern U.S. coast being frequent areas of early activity.
Since 1851, there have been 43 tropical storm systems in the Atlantic Basin recorded between January 1st and May 31st, averaging about one pre-season tropical cyclone every four years. Notably, the years 2022 and 2024 are the only ones in the past decade without a preseason storm, with instances like an unnamed subtropical storm in January 2023 marking the early onset of the hurricane season. It’s essential to remain vigilant and prepared for potential tropical weather events during this time.
Hurricanes are known to occur throughout the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which spans each month of the year. The paths of named storms prior to June 1 in the Atlantic region have been tracked from 2015 to 2021. Early forecasts for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season indicate that it may be another season with above-average activity. Tropical development before June could further confirm these predictions. In an outlook released on April 3, experts at Colorado State University (CSU) have predicted 17 named storms, nine of which may intensify into hurricanes. Among these hurricanes, four could potentially reach major status with wind speeds exceeding 111 mph (Category 3 or higher). The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook by CSU, issued on April 3, 2025, deviates from the norm, with projections surpassing the 30-year average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Source: First storm of 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could develop before June.
