The USA TODAY Sports Top 25 for the 2024 college football season was published shortly after Michigan’s national championship win over Washington and Nick Saban’s retirement from Alabama. With Saban stepping down, we ranked Alabama No. 2 in our early predictions out of respect for his coaching legacy. Meanwhile, at the time of our rankings, Michigan’s head coach Jim Harbaugh had not yet officially left for the Los Angeles Chargers, and their quarterback J.J. McCarthy was on the verge of declaring for the NFL draft, placing the Wolverines at No. 3 in our list.
However, upon reflection, our early projections showed some inaccuracies, such as overestimating teams like LSU, Oklahoma, and Virginia Tech while undervaluing the Big Ten conference as a whole. As we prepare to release our Top 25 for the 2025 season following the championship game between Notre Dame and Ohio State, it’s essential to review our previous year’s predictions to assess our hits and misses.
Successful predictions included:
– No. 4 Texas finishing second in the SEC and making the College Football Playoff semifinals for the second consecutive year.
– No. 11 Clemson winning the ACC but falling to Texas in the playoff.
– No. 23 Memphis enjoying a successful season despite not being the top Group of Five team.
Close calls that were not entirely accurate:
– No. 1 Georgia winning the SEC but falling short in the playoffs due to quarterback injuries.
– No. 6 Notre Dame’s strong season, one win away from potentially securing their first title since 1988.
– No. 7 Oregon being projected as a top team in the Big Ten but ultimately losing a game in the regular season.
Reviewing the Past: Some Hits and Misses in College Football Rankings
The good news: We accurately predicted the final ranking for No. 12 Tennessee (10-3). However, our initial Top 25 placement had them undervalued in the SEC. Despite beating Alabama and making it to the playoffs, they fell short against Ohio State.
No. 14 Missouri (10-3) was a bit overestimated by us. They had a limited number of wins against strong opponents and barely scraped through close games to secure double-digit wins.
No. 5 Mississippi (10-3) faced unexpected losses that cost them a playoff spot and a chance at a top-five finish. They showed potential as one of the best in the SEC when everything clicked but struggled to maintain consistency.
We underestimated both No. 9 Ohio State (14-2*) and No. 15 Penn State (13-3) in the Big Ten. Ohio State made a strong run to the championship game despite being undervalued initially. Penn State had potential but faced uncertainties with their offensive line and quarterback performance.
No. 24 Iowa (8-5) fell short of our initial ranking after a bowl loss but showed promise by competing closely in key games.
No. 2 Alabama (9-4) had a disappointing season under a new coach, suffering losses that were unexpected for the Crimson Tide.
No. 3 Michigan (8-5) faced challenges after significant changes in coaching staff and key players but ended the season with notable wins.
No. 17 Washington (6-7) struggled after losing key talent, contrary to our initial expectations.
No. 22 Kansas (5-7) fell short with a losing record, despite some close games against ranked opponents.
No. 8 Oklahoma (6-7) faced a rough season, highlighting the unpredictability in college football.
Reflecting on these hits and misses, it’s clear that college football rankings can be both exciting and challenging to predict accurately.
The performance of the offensive line was pivotal in determining whether the team could contend for a spot in the playoffs. Unfortunately, things did not go as planned, and the offense struggled throughout the season. The entrance of Texas into the SEC added to the team’s woes. A silver lining emerged with a victory over Alabama, extending the Sooners’ bowl streak to 26 consecutive seasons, although it was followed by a disappointing loss to Navy.
LSU, ranked No. 10, entered the season with high expectations under coach Brian Kelly. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier took over from Jayden Daniels, but the team faltered, losing to Southern California in the season opener and dropping three consecutive games to Texas A&M, Alabama, and Florida.
Utah, ranked No. 16, faced challenges, particularly with injuries affecting key positions, including quarterback. Despite a promising 4-0 start, the Utes went on a seven-game losing streak, finishing near the bottom of the Big 12 and experiencing their first losing season since 2013.
Southern California, ranked No. 19, struggled to find momentum in their inaugural season in the Big Ten conference. The Trojans barely made it to the postseason, suffering close defeats to teams like Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland, and Washington.
North Carolina State, ranked No. 21, faced setbacks amid a competitive ACC landscape. The Wolfpack, plagued by injuries, suffered a blowout loss to Tennessee and narrowly lost four games by a single possession.
Virginia Tech, ranked No. 25, fell short of the anticipated breakthrough. While remaining competitive in their losses, the Hokies were unable to secure significant victories, with their defeat to Minnesota in the Mayo Bowl standing out as their most significant loss.
Arizona, ranked No. 13, underwent coaching changes that impacted their performance in the remodeled Big 12 conference. Despite high expectations, the Wildcats failed to meet the early predictions, leading to a disappointing season.
Oklahoma State, ranked No. 20, started the season strong but faltered in conference play, finishing at the bottom of the Big 12. The team’s poor performance raised questions about the future of coach Mike Gundy.
Florida State, ranked No. 18, stood out as a major disappointment in the season. Despite being ranked lower in early predictions, the Seminoles had a dismal 2-10 record, cementing their status as one of the biggest letdowns of the season.
In reflection, the college football landscape witnessed a mix of hits and misses in the early Top 25 predictions for the season. Teams faced challenges, ranging from injuries to unexpected losses, leading to unanticipated outcomes across the board. As the season unfolded, some teams exceeded expectations while others fell short, highlighting the unpredictable nature of college football.
